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Tropical Storm CARLOS Public Advisory Number 27A
2015-06-17 13:53:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 171153 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 700 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 ...RAPIDLY WEAKENING CARLOS NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 105.1W ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM S OF PLAYA PERULA MEXICO ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 105.1 West. Carlos is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue until dissipation occurs on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Carlos will cross the coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area today and move over the western coast of Mexico by this evening. Maximum sustained winds have rapidly decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is expected as Carlos moves near or over the coast of western Mexico today. The cyclone is forecast to become a tropical depression by tonight and a remnant low by Thursday morning as it moves off of the coast of Mexico and into the southern Gulf of California. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area today. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit through Friday. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-17 10:40:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Jun 2015 08:40:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 17 Jun 2015 08:36:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 27
2015-06-17 10:37:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 170836 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 The satellite appearance of Carlos continues to rapidly deteriorate as the surface circulation separates further from the remaining less organized and shrinking deep convection. Moderate northerly shear and mid to upper-level dry, stable, air penetrating the cloud pattern from western Mexico has more than likely been the contributing factor in the sudden weakening trend. Small, compact, tropical cyclones such as Carlos are notorious for spinning down as quickly as they can rapidly intensify. The initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt for this advisory and this could be generous given that the Dvorak technique has been known to be imprecise with small tropical cyclones. The NHC forecast calls for rapid weakening through the period as the cyclone interacts with the mountainous terrain of western Mexico before moving back over water around the 24 hour period. The current forecast philosophy is that Carlos' circulation will have been severely disrupted by the time of its expected to move offshore and into the southern Gulf of California. Thus, regeneration is unlikely and dissipation should occur in 48 hours or less. The initial motion is estimated to be around 330/6 kt. The primary steering mechanism through the forecast period is the south-southeasterly low-level flow produced by high pressure to the east-northeast of the cyclone and a trough of low pressure extending southward from the Gulf of California. The official forecast, which is nudged to the right of the previous forecast, is based primarily on a blend of the Florida State Superensemble, the GFS, and the shallow layer Beta and Advection Model (BAMS). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 19.0N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 19.8N 105.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0600Z 20.6N 105.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1800Z 21.1N 106.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm CARLOS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2015-06-17 10:36:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 17 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 170836 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0900 UTC WED JUN 17 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P VALLARTA 34 12 19(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 17 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MANZANILLO 34 30 X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Tropical Storm CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-17 10:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS RAPIDLY WEAKENING... ...APPROACHING THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 the center of CARLOS was located near 19.0, -104.8 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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