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Tropical Depression Carlos Public Advisory Number 10
2021-06-15 04:34:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 150234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Carlos Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 ...CARLOS BARELY HOLDS ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.5N 130.8W ABOUT 1620 MI...2610 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos was located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 130.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a westward turn through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and Carlos is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by Tuesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-06-15 04:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 150233 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0300 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 130.8W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 130.8W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 130.4W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 10.1N 132.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 9.8N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 9.7N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 9.7N 136.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 9.8N 137.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 10.0N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 130.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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Tropical Depression Carlos Graphics
2021-06-14 22:43:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Jun 2021 20:43:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Jun 2021 20:43:49 GMT
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-06-14 22:42:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 142042 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 The convective burst that occurred this morning near the center of Carlos has been gradually dissipating throughout the day. Satellite imagery shows dry and stable air being entrained into the circulation and the cyclone's center has become partially exposed. The latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB indicates that Carlos has weakened to a 30-kt tropical depression, and this will be the initial advisory intensity. Carlos is moving west-southwest at 8 kt, steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. Most of the track guidance is in good agreement on keeping this ridge intact over the next several days, forcing Carlos on the same west-southwest trajectory for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn to the west by midweek. The latest NHC track forecast was adjusted to be a little faster and to the south of the previous one to better match the trend in the guidance, and is now near the northern end of the multi-model consensus. The depression is forecast to continue to traverse a dry and stable airmass for the remainder of the week, and ongoing intrusions of this air should inhibit the cyclone from producing long-lived convection. The lack of deep convection should cause Carlos to continue a slow weakening trend and eventually degenerate into a remnant low. The official NHC forecast calls for this transition to to occur by 48 h. However, it could occur sooner than this if organized deep convection fails to regenerate. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 10.9N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 10.5N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 10.1N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 9.9N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 9.9N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0600Z 9.9N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z 10.1N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1800Z 10.3N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-06-14 22:42:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 142042 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 2100 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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