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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-06-15 11:16:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 904 WTPZ43 KNHC 150858 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Organized deep convection has dissipated once again near the low-level center of Carlos, thanks to a combination of very dry, stable mid-level air and increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. A blend of the latest subjective and objective intensity estimates supports maintaining the current intensity of 30-kt for this advisory, though this may be somewhat generous given the highest wind retrieval from a partial 0459 UTC ASCAT-A pass was only 26 kt. Carlos is continuing to move steadily to the west-southwest at 245/10 kt. This current motion should continue for the next day or so followed by a gradual bend westward as the shallow cyclone becomes increasingly steered by a large poleward low-level ridge over the north Pacific. The latest NHC track is once again a bit faster and slightly south of the previous forecast, but remains in agreement with the multi-model consensus. The continued combination of very dry 40-45 percent relative humidity and 25-30 kts of southwesterly vertical wind shear will ultimately lead to Carlos' demise, despite the cyclone traversing sufficently warm 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures. Now that convection has dissipated again near the center, without another resurgence, it is only a matter of time before the cyclone degenerates into a remnant low. Investigating simulated satellite forecasts from global model (GFS, ECMWF, CMC) and regional hurricane model (HWRF) output suggests that any additional convective bursts will quickly shear off to the east and not be sufficently organized to maintain the cyclone's identity. Therefore, Carlos is expected to become a remnant low in 24 h, but could occur as soon as this afternoon if convection does not return soon. The remnant low will continue to slowly spin down, likely opening up into a trough by 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 10.1N 131.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 9.6N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 9.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1800Z 9.5N 135.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 9.5N 137.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z 9.7N 138.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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Tropical Depression Carlos Graphics
2021-06-15 04:38:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Jun 2021 02:38:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Jun 2021 03:28:25 GMT
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-06-15 04:37:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 505 WTPZ43 KNHC 150237 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Carlos is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone. The depression was completely devoid of convection for several hours this afternoon with a completely exposed low-level center, but recently a small burst of convection pulsed near and to the west-southwest of the low-level center. Given the unfavorable environment the system is embedded within, this activity is likely to be short-lived. Carlos remains a 30-kt tropical depression with this advisory, in best agreement with the subjective Dvorak classification received from TAFB. The depression is still moving west-southwestward, or 250/10 kt. This general motion will continue for the next 24 h, followed by a westward motion to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge that should continue through Carlos' dissipation. The latest NHC track forecast track is somewhat faster and slightly south of the previous one, in agreement with the latest multi-model consensus. Despite reasonably warm sea-surface temperatures along its track, Carlos is expected to continue battling intrusions of dry air from its surrounding environment as well as increasing west-southwesterly shear. Therefore, the future looks bleak for Carlos, and the system appears likely to degenerate to a remnant low within the next 24 h or so. This forecast is consistent with the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery, which shows little potential for any sustained, organized convection going forward. The majority of the global guidance now suggests that the remnant low will dissipate by Friday night, which is reflected in this forecast advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 10.5N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 10.1N 132.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 9.8N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1200Z 9.7N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 9.7N 136.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1200Z 9.8N 137.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z 10.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Depression Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-06-15 04:35:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 150235 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0300 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression Carlos (EP3/EP032021)
2021-06-15 04:34:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS BARELY HOLDS ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 the center of Carlos was located near 10.5, -130.8 with movement WSW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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