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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-06-15 16:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 151433 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Several hours ago there was a burst of deep convection near the center of Carlos. Although cloud tops are beginning to warm, this convection gave Carlos a little more time as a tropical cyclone. There has been no new ASCAT data since early yesterday to confirm the strength of the cyclone's winds, and so the initial intensity is set at a somewhat uncertain 30 kt for this advisory, which is in agreement with the CIMSS ADT. Carlos has begun to turn back to the west and is now on a heading of 260/9 kt. This general motion, except for perhaps a slight decrease in forward speed is expected for the remainder of the cyclone's existence, as it is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus. Dry and stable air along with strong vertical wind shear that have been disrupting the depression's convection will continue to affect the cyclone for the foreseeable future. Due to the warm underlying waters, there still may be some short-lived convective bursts near the center of Carlos over the next couple of days. In about 2 days, the shear vector will shift from southwest to northwest as an upper trough north of the depression shifts east. This subsident pattern should put an end to any chances for organized deep convection to return. The NHC forecast calls for Carlos to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 h. However, that timing is uncertain, and Carlos could remain a tropical cyclone until the upper-level flow shifts in a couple of days. Once a remnant low, the system should dissipate within a day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 10.0N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 9.8N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 9.7N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z 9.7N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z 9.7N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0000Z 9.9N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-06-15 16:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 151433 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 1500 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 1 14(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Tropical Depression Carlos (EP3/EP032021)
2021-06-15 16:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS TRYING TO HANG ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 the center of Carlos was located near 10.0, -132.6 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Carlos Public Advisory Number 12
2021-06-15 16:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 151432 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Carlos Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 ...CARLOS TRYING TO HANG ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 132.6W ABOUT 1745 MI...2805 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 132.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A continued westward motion along with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and Carlos is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-06-15 16:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 151432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 1500 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 132.6W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 132.6W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 132.2W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 9.8N 133.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 9.7N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 9.7N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 9.7N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 9.9N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 132.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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