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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 4

2021-06-13 16:48:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 131448 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 Deep convection has persisted over the center of Carlos throughout the night and a new convective burst with cloud tops of -60 to -70 degrees C is occuring over the estimated center location. A blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support increasing the initial intensity to 45 kt. This seems reasonable, as an earlier ASCAT-B overpass had several vectors of 40-41 kt, and the vortex likely has spun up further due to the ongoing deep convection. Carlos continues to move west at around 7 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge to the north. This ridge is forecast to become oriented northeast to southwest later today and prevail over the next couple days which should cause the cyclone to move slowly west-southwestward. After 48 h the models diverge significantly in their track solutions, with the GFS and ECMWF turning the system abruptly northward, while most of the other guidance has a more westward then west-northwestward motion beyond 72 h. There is a mid- to upper-level low currently located west of Mexico that the models are handling differently. The easternmost track solutions for Carlos weaken this feature more quickly and replace it with a ridge to the east of Carlos, while the western solutions keep the feature around, delaying the more poleward motion of the cyclone. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one through 48 h, but is shifted west thereafter. Still, the NHC forecast track is well east of the consensus after 48 h. Needless to say the track forecast confidence beyond day 2 is low. Northerly shear of 10-15 kt and the proximity to dry and stable mid-level air to its north should cause periodic weakening of the storm's deep convection, which would prevent any further strengthening, and Carlos is expected to hold its current intensity for the next couple of days. Thereafter, regardless of the western or eastern track model solutions, Carlos is expected to encounter an even drier and more stable airmass and cooler sea surface temperatures. This should cause a weakening trend to begin by mid-week. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 11.8N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 11.6N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 11.1N 127.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 10.7N 128.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 10.4N 128.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 10.4N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 11.0N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 12.8N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 15.2N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

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Summary for Tropical Storm Carlos (EP3/EP032021)

2021-06-13 16:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CARLOS STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 the center of Carlos was located near 11.8, -126.0 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Carlos Public Advisory Number 4

2021-06-13 16:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 131447 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlos Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 AM PDT Sun Jun 13 2021 ...CARLOS STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.8N 126.0W ABOUT 1305 MI...2105 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 126.0 West. Carlos is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest at a slower forward speed is forecast to occur this afternoon and continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Some slow weakening is expected by midweek. Carlos remains a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 4

2021-06-13 16:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 131447 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 1500 UTC SUN JUN 13 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 126.0W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 126.0W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 125.7W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 11.6N 126.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 11.1N 127.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 10.7N 128.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 10.4N 128.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 10.4N 129.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 11.0N 129.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 12.8N 129.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 15.2N 129.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 126.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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