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Hurricane CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-17 05:04:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Jun 2015 03:04:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 17 Jun 2015 03:01:47 GMT
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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 26
2015-06-17 05:01:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 170301 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 Tiny hurricane Carlos' surface circulation is appearing to become unglued from its deep convection and its mid-level circulation. While a mid-level center may be co-located within the convection near 17.5N 105.0W, the surface center is located substantially farther northeast. However, it is an open question as to where exactly it is currently located. My best estimate shown below is based upon last-light visible imagery and a very timely 0051Z WindSat microwave pass. The initial position suggests a current motion of 315/4 kt. Decaying Carlos should continue to move toward the northwest at about the same rate of speed, as it gets advected along by the low-level flow. As all of the global models lose the circulation of Carlos within a day, the track forecast is based upon a blend of persistence and the BAM advection models. Due to the more northward initial position, the track prediction is farther north than that from the previous advisory. The areal extent of deep convection is also diminishing and the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are dropping in response. The initial intensity of 65 kt is based upon a 4.0 CI number from both agencies, which represents a substantial drop from what the aircraft reconnaissance observed only several hours ago. It is quite possible that the tropical cyclone is even weaker than indicated here, given the rather abrupt dislocation of the convection from the center. Embedded within an increasingly dry and stable atmosphere coupled with moderate northerly vertical shear, Carlos should continue to weaken. The official forecast is a blend between the LGEM and SHIPS statistical models (which slowly weaken Carlos) and the HWRF and GFDL dynamical models (which nearly immediately dissipate Carlos). This forecast is substantially below the predictions from the last advisory due to the quick reversal from intensification to weakening. Given the tiny size of the system, the very rapid dissipation indicated by the dynamical models is not out of the question. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 18.2N 104.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 18.6N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 19.1N 105.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 19.5N 106.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 19.8N 106.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Hurricane CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-17 05:01:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE CARLOS WEAKENING... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 the center of CARLOS was located near 18.2, -104.5 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 26
2015-06-17 05:01:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 170300 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...HURRICANE CARLOS WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 104.5W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 104.5 West. Carlos is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), which is expected to continue for the next couple of days until dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Substantial weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Carlos is anticipated to become a tropical storm on Wednesday and a tropical depression by Thursday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through Wednesday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area through Wednesday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce heavy rains in the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Durango, and Sinaloa with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible through Friday. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are also possible. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Hurricane CARLOS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2015-06-17 05:01:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 17 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 170300 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0300 UTC WED JUN 17 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 29 16(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 3 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 18 6(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) MANZANILLO 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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