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Hurricane CARLOS Graphics
2015-06-16 22:41:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Jun 2015 20:41:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Jun 2015 20:39:44 GMT
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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 25
2015-06-16 22:40:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 162040 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 Carlos is a feisty little hurricane. Despite the hurricane's satellite presentation, the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft measured maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 90 kt and SFMR winds between 80-85 kt. The maximum surface winds are therefore estimated to be 80 kt. The flight meteorologist also indicated that Carlos's eye was about 7-8 n mi wide. There continues to be low confidence in the intensity forecast, since none of the models seem to be able to handle Carlos's size particularly well. The statistical- dynamical models keep Carlos as a hurricane for another three days or so, while the global and regional dynamical models indicate fast weakening (the ECMWF shows dissipation within 24 hours!). The NHC official intensity forecast indicates gradual weakening through day 3, with dissipation by day 4. However, Carlos's small size makes it susceptible to large swings in intensity, and even a slight increase in shear or dry air could lead to faster weakening than indicated. Based on the aircraft fixes, Carlos appears to have turned northwestward, or 305/4 kt, toward a break in the subtropical ridge located over northern Mexico and Texas. Since the most reliable track models dissipate the cyclone so soon, the official forecast relies on the remaining available guidance (GFDL, NAVGEM, and GFNI) more than usual. The updated NHC track forecast is essentially a blend of the available guidance and the previous official forecast. Due to the high uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, the tropical storm warning and hurricane watch for the coast of Mexico will be unchanged. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 17.8N 104.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 18.2N 104.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 18.9N 105.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 19.6N 106.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 20.2N 106.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 21.6N 107.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane CARLOS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2015-06-16 22:40:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 162039 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 2100 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) P VALLARTA 34 1 9(10) 15(25) 4(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) P VALLARTA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 15 35(50) 4(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 1 12(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 12 20(32) 1(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) MANZANILLO 50 1 5( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 12(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 25
2015-06-16 22:39:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 162039 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 2100 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 104.4W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 104.4W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 104.2W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.2N 104.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.9N 105.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.6N 106.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.2N 106.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 21.6N 107.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 104.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane CARLOS (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-16 22:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS PRODUCING 90-MPH WINDS... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 the center of CARLOS was located near 17.8, -104.4 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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