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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-07 22:52:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARGE LARRY STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 7 the center of Larry was located near 25.1, -56.3 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 29
2021-09-07 22:52:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 072052 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 56.3W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 56.3W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 55.8W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.3N 58.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.5N 60.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 33.3N 61.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.8N 61.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 41.7N 58.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 180SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 53.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 60.0N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 56.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 29
2021-09-07 22:52:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 072052 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 ...LARGE LARRY STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 56.3W ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 56.3 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning late Wednesday or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2021-09-07 22:52:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 072052 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) X(39) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 72(75) X(75) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) X(42) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 54(59) X(59) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) X(29) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) X(33) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 11(37) X(37) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Larry Graphics
2021-09-07 19:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Sep 2021 17:49:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Sep 2021 15:23:04 GMT
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