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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 36

2021-07-09 04:34:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 090234 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 ...ELSA APPROACHING CHESAPEAKE BAY... ...FLASH FLOODING THREAT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.6N 76.5W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Surf City, North Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning area, please see products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 37.6 North, longitude 76.5 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass through the eastern mid-Atlantic states tonight and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through Friday, and Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) mostly southeast of the center. A WeatherFlow station on Pamlico Sound recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) gusting to 58 mph (93 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches) based on nearby surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the mid-Atlantic coast overnight. These winds will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern states on Friday. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Over the eastern Mid Atlantic States into New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through Friday, which could result in limited flash and urban flooding for the northern Mid-Atlantic States and considerable flash and urban flooding in New England. Isolated minor river flooding is also expected. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible overnight along the Mid-Atlantic coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 35A

2021-07-09 01:45:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 082345 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 35A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 ...THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT FROM ELSA CONTINUES ESPECIALLY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.8N 77.4W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning area, please see products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 77.4 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states tonight, and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through Friday, and Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km), well to the southeast of the center. A WeatherFlow weather station on Alligator Bridge in Dare County, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) gusting to 51 mph (81 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches) based on nearby surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of the North Carolina coast and along the mid-Atlantic coast later this evening. These winds will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern states by Friday. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia, and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia and eastern Maryland through this evening. The threat for a tornado or two will continue through late tonight and Friday morning across coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 35

2021-07-08 22:56:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 082056 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 ...ELSA SLIGHTLY STRONGER... ...HEADED FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.3N 78.3W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of Little River Inlet has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little River Inlet, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning area, please see products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 78.3 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move over North Carolina this afternoon, pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through Friday, and Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. A NOAA-NOS weather station in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) gusting to 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of the North Carolina coast today, and along the mid-Atlantic coast later this afternoon and evening. These winds will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern states by Friday. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia, and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia and eastern Maryland through this evening. The threat for a tornado or two will continue through late tonight and Friday morning across coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Papin

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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 34A

2021-07-08 19:58:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 081758 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 34A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 200 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 ...ELSA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTH CAROLINA... ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INTO VIRGINIA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.6N 79.0W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning area, please see products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 79.0 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move over North Carolina today, pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible tonight and Friday while the system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A NOAA-NOS weather station in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 42 mph (68 km/h) gusting to 50 mph (80 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts today, and along the mid-Atlantic coast later this afternoon and evening. These winds will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern states by Friday and Friday night. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia, and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia through this afternoon. The threat for a tornado or two may continue tonight and Friday morning across coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Papin

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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 34

2021-07-08 16:56:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 904 WTNT35 KNHC 081456 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 ...ELSA MOVES INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.0N 79.7W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning area, please see products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 79.7 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will move over South Carolina and North Carolina today, pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible tonight and Friday while the system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A buoy near Sunset Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) gusting to 58 mph (93 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the North Carolina coasts today, and along the mid-Atlantic coast by this afternoon and evening. These winds will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern states by Friday and Friday night. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia, and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia through this afternoon. The threat for a tornado or two may continue tonight and Friday morning across coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Papin

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