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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 21A
2021-08-21 07:52:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 210552 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 ...HENRI EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 73.4W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York * North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York * Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York * North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Cape Cod Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point * North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point * New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut * South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts including Block Island and Martha's Vineyard. * Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 73.4 West. Henri is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion is expected today, with a turn toward the north-northwest expected late today or tonight. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long Island or southern New England late Saturday night or on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane today and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long Island or southern New England. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...3-5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY...2-4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by late tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 21
2021-08-21 04:59:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 210259 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...HENRI CONTINUING NORTHWARD WHILE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 73.5W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Warning between Greenwich, CT to Flushing, NY and Flushing to Oyster Bay, NY. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Watch Hill, Rhode Island, east to Woods Hole, Massachusetts, including Block Island and Martha's Vineyard. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect west of East Rockaway Inlet, New York, to Manasquan Inlet, New Jersey, including New York City. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York * North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York * Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York * North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Cape Cod Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point * North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point * New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut * South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts including Block Island and Martha's Vineyard. * Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Saturday Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 73.5 West. Henri is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion is expected through Saturday, with a turn toward the north-northwest expected late Saturday or Saturday night. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long Island or southern New England late Saturday night or on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long Island or southern New England. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...3-5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY...2-4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area late Saturday night or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area late Saturday night or on Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by late Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late Saturday night and Sunday. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Grace Public Advisory Number 31
2021-08-21 04:58:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 210258 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Grace Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...GRACE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LANDFALL EXPECTED IN MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 96.3W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should have already been completed. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere withing the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 96.3 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through landfall. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area later tonight. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts, making Grace a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible until Grace makes landfall, with rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland over the mountains of central Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure from reconnaissance aircraft data is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico tonight, with tropical storm conditions already occuring. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico through tomorrow morning. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides. SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Hurricane Grace Public Advisory Number 30A
2021-08-21 02:52:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 210051 CCA TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 30A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 700 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Corrected wind speed in km/h for summary and discussion section ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRACE INTENSIFYING... ...LANDFALL ALONG EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 95.7W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.55 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere withing the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 95.7 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through landfall. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this evening, and then make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (160 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Grace makes landfall, with rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland over the mountains of central Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure recently measured by Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft is 967 mb (28.55 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected within the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by this evening. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides. SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Hurricane Grace Public Advisory Number 30A
2021-08-21 02:00:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 210000 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 700 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRACE INTENSIFYING... ...LANDFALL ALONG EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 95.7W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.55 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere withing the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 95.7 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through landfall. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this evening, and then make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Grace makes landfall, with rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland over the mountains of central Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure recently measured by Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft is 967 mb (28.55 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected within the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by this evening. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides. SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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