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Hurricane Max Public Advisory Number 7
2017-09-14 22:40:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 142040 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Max Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 ...MAX MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN GUERRERO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 99.1W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta Maldonado to Lagunas de Chacahua A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta Maldonado to Lagunas de Chacahua For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Max was located along the coast of eastern Guerrero near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 99.1 West. Max is moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the east-northeast is expected by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Max will move farther inland over southern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Max should weaken to a tropical storm this evening and dissipate over southern Mexico on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Max is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in the Mexican state of Guerrero and western portions of the state of Oaxaca. Maximum amounts locally in excess of 20 inches are possible over coastal areas of Guerrero. These torrential rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring within portions of the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area by this evening, with hurricane conditions possible tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center is making landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Max Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2017-09-14 22:40:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 142040 PWSEP1 HURRICANE MAX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162017 2100 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MAX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P MALDONADO 34 85 X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) P MALDONADO 50 17 X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) P MALDONADO 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane Max Forecast Advisory Number 7
2017-09-14 22:39:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 142039 TCMEP1 HURRICANE MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162017 2100 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA MALDONADO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 99.1W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 45SE 45SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 99.1W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 99.4W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.9N 98.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 99.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Max Graphics
2017-09-14 19:52:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 17:52:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 15:39:08 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Max (EP1/EP162017)
2017-09-14 19:51:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MAX STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF ACAPULCO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 the center of Max was located near 16.5, -99.4 with movement E at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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