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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 5
2025-06-17 22:32:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 074 WTPZ45 KNHC 172032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 Erick has continued to become better organized in visible satellite imagery, with an extended cloud band curling one revolution around the center. However, there is also some evidence of a dry slot filtering into the circulation from the southeast, and possibly as a result, infrared cloud top temperatures in the band are not as cold as they could be. Subjective Dvorak classifications have risen to T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB, but the initial intensity is held conservatively at 45 kt since objective numbers are closest to the TAFB estimate. The center appears to have turned northwestward (310 degrees) and is moving around 6 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone, and a mid-/upper-level trough over northern Mexico, should keep Erick on a generally northwestward trajectory for the next couple of days, with a gradual increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast track lies close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids, and it a little east of the previous prediction. Because of the oblique angle of Erick's track relative to the coast, it is impossible to know exactly where the strongest winds might occur, but it is becoming increasingly likely that they will occur in the area of western Oaxaca or eastern Guerrero states. Despite the current convective pattern, the environment of low wind shear, high mid-level moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures should still support rapid strengthening. Erick also has the structure to enable rapid intensification, and it may only take mixing out some of the dry air for that process to begin. Rapid intensification (RI) indices fell a little on this forecast cycle, mainly due to a negative contribution from the influx of drier boundary layer air. However, assuming this dry air can mix out, the NHC intensity forecast continues to be near the high end of the guidance (closest to HCCA and HMON), and still shows Erick near or at major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick is expected to rapidly intensify before reaching the coast of southern Mexico on Thursday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the coast of Oaxaca. A hurricane watch is in effect for portions of the Guerrero coast. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 12.9N 94.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 13.3N 95.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 14.2N 96.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 15.4N 97.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.9N 99.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/0600Z 18.3N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Erick (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-17 22:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS LIKELY... As of 3:00 PM CST Tue Jun 17 the center of Erick was located near 12.9, -94.4 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Erick Public Advisory Number 5
2025-06-17 22:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 172031 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 ...ERICK FORECAST TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS LIKELY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 94.4W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Angel to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco * East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Watches and warnings may be extended westward along the coast later today or tonight. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 94.4 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane by tonight or early Wednesday. Erick is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Wednesday night and Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late Wednesday and Wednesday night. STORM SURGE: Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2025-06-17 22:31:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 172031 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 2100 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) X(19) X(19) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 14(32) X(32) X(32) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 100W 34 X 4( 4) 15(19) 13(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ACAPULCO 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 54(68) 6(74) X(74) X(74) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 8(36) X(36) X(36) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) P MALDONADO 34 1 5( 6) 50(56) 32(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) 14(14) 51(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) P ANGEL 34 2 44(46) 28(74) 2(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) P ANGEL 50 X 6( 6) 23(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) P ANGEL 64 X 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) HUATULCO 34 1 14(15) 21(36) 1(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) HUATULCO 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HUATULCO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 10N 95W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 95W 34 5 26(31) 7(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 15N 95W 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SALINA CRUZ 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAPACHULA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Advisory Number 5
2025-06-17 22:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 233 WTPZ25 KNHC 172031 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 2100 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 94.4W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 80SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 94.4W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 94.1W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.3N 95.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.2N 96.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.4N 97.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.9N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.3N 100.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 94.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Erick Graphics
2025-06-17 19:46:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 17:46:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Jun 2025 15:22:33 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Erick (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-17 19:46:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK STRENGTHENING... As of 12:00 PM CST Tue Jun 17 the center of Erick was located near 12.6, -94.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Erick Public Advisory Number 4a
2025-06-17 19:46:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 195 WTPZ35 KNHC 171746 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 1200 PM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 ...ERICK STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 94.1W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Angel to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco * East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Watches and warnings may be extended westward along the coast later today or tonight. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 94.1 West. Erick is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower motion toward the northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a faster northwestward motion Wednesday through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane by tonight or early Wednesday. Erick is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Wednesday night and Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late Wednesday and Wednesday night. STORM SURGE: Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-06-17 19:30:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000ABPZ20 KNHC 171730TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.&&Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Erick are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Erick are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.$$Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-06-17 19:28:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
580 ABNT20 KNHC 171728TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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