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Tropical Depression Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2025-07-05 04:35:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 000 FONT13 KNHC 050234 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 5( 5) 13(18) 8(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 7( 7) 17(24) 7(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 21(22) 23(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 17(18) 13(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Three Graphics
2025-07-05 01:36:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Jul 2025 23:33:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Jul 2025 21:21:37 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-07-05 01:34:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
032 ABNT20 KNHC 042333TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Three, located offshore of the coast of the southeastern United States.Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.&&Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Three are listed under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Three are listed under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.$$Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Depression Three (AT3/AL032025)
2025-07-05 01:33:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... As of 8:00 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 the center of Three was located near 30.8, -79.0 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 1a
2025-07-05 01:33:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 030 WTNT33 KNHC 042332 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 800 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 79.0W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches will likely be required for portions of this area later tonight and Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 79.0 West. The depression has recently been stationary, but is forecast to move toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h) later this evening. A slow motion toward the north-northwest is then expected on Saturday, followed by a motion toward the north Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning late Saturday or early Sunday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas Saturday through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of onshore flow. SURF: The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to much of the Carolina coastline during the next couple of days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-07-05 01:16:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000ABPZ20 KNHC 042315TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Central East Pacific (EP96):A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is anticipated during the next few days, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. South of Southwestern Mexico:An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of southwestern Mexico late next week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.$$Forecaster Gibbs/Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Local Statement for Charleston, SC
2025-07-05 00:13:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 519 PM EDT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Local Statement for Wilmington, NC
2025-07-05 00:13:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 608 PM EDT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Three Graphics
2025-07-04 23:21:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Jul 2025 20:44:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Jul 2025 21:21:37 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 1
2025-07-04 22:35:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 000 WTNT43 KNHC 042035 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 The wind circulation associated with the low pressure area east of the coast of north Florida has become stronger, with aircraft and scatterometer data indicating a well-defined circulation with maximum winds near 30 kt and a radius of maximum wind of about 80-90 n mi. The system has also developed persistent convection east and southeast of the center. Based on these developments, advisories are being started on Tropical Depression Three. The cyclone is currently being affected by 20-25 kt of southwesterly shear caused by a mid- to upper-level trough not far to the west. The initial motion is uncertain due to some reformation of the center, with the best estimate of 360/2 kt. During the next 24 h, the cyclone should move slowly north-northwestward on the northeast side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the northeastern Gulf. After that time, the system should be steered northward with a gradual increase in forward speed. This motion should bring the center near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. A generally northward motion should then continue until the system dissipates over land. While the guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there is considerable spread in both the forecast direction and speed, with the HWRF being a notable right outlier. The forecast track is in best agreement with the GFS and the HCCA corrected consensus model. The current shear is expected to diminish on Saturday as the upper-level trough moves westward away from the cyclone and the upper-level winds become southerly. However, the upper-level winds are forecast to become convergent, which may limit the amount of convection the system produces. Most of the guidance shows some development as the system approaches the coast, so the intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening to a tropical storm before the cyclone makes landfall. This forecast is a little below the intensity consensus. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning Saturday and continuing through Sunday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash flooding from Saturday through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur within more urbanized areas along the coastal plain of the Carolinas. 3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to much of the Carolina coastline during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 30.8N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 31.3N 79.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 31.7N 79.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 32.4N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 33.7N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 07/0600Z 35.0N 79.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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