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Summary for Tropical Storm Humberto (AT4/AL092019)

2019-09-14 22:36:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HUMBERTO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 the center of Humberto was located near 27.4, -77.3 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Humberto Public Advisory Number 9

2019-09-14 22:36:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 142036 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 ...HUMBERTO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 77.3W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Northwestern Bahamas. WATCHES AND WARNINGS There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 77.3 West. Humberto is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual turn to the north is expected during the next day or so. A sharp turn to the northeast is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto should continue to move away from the northwestern Bahamas tonight, and then move well offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend and early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Humberto is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday night or early Monday well east of the east coast of Florida. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gusty winds in squalls are still affecting the northwestern Bahamas. These winds should subside later tonight. RAINFALL: Humberto is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Monday: The Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals of 6 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Humberto are expected to affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the coast of the U.S. from from east-central Florida to South Carolina during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 9

2019-09-14 22:36:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 142036 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane extensively investigated Humberto during the past several hours. Data from the plane indicated that the circulation was much better defined than yesterday and the winds increased to 45 kt. Since the plane left, satellite images revealed that the cloud pattern has continued to become better organized, and the low-level center is now under the convection. However, the Dvorak numbers still support keeping the same intensity of 45 kt at this time. Now that the shear appears to be decreasing and Humberto will be moving over warm waters, the NHC forecast continues to call for strengthening. Humberto is anticipated to become a hurricane in about 36 hours over the western Atlantic well east of the Florida east coast, and well away from the Bahamas. The intensity forecast continues to be consistent with the solutions of the consensus model and the corrected consensus HCCA. In addition, all global models intensify Humberto and show an increase in the size of the storm. Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Humberto has begun to move very slowly toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 6 kt. The ridge over the western Atlantic that has been trapping Humberto is already weakening, and this should result in a slow motion toward the north-northwest and then north during the next day or so. After that time, the cyclone will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies, and Humberto, by then a hurricane, is forecast to sharply recurve northeastward away from the United States with no significant increase in forward speed. Only by the end of the forecast period, Humberto should begin to accelerate. The NHC forecast is very consistent with the track guidance which once again clearly depict the slow motion of the system, and then a sharp right turn in 2 or 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 27.4N 77.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 28.2N 77.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 29.3N 78.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 29.9N 77.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 30.5N 76.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 31.2N 73.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 32.5N 67.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 36.0N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Summary for Hurricane Kiko (EP3/EP132019)

2019-09-14 22:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...KIKO QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 the center of Kiko was located near 17.1, -119.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Hurricane Kiko Public Advisory Number 10

2019-09-14 22:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 142036 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 ...KIKO QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 119.3W ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 119.3 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward or west- northwestward course at a slower forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the day or so, followed by little change in strength Sunday night and Monday. Weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 9

2019-09-14 22:36:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 142035 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. WATCHES AND WARNINGS THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 77.3W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 150SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 77.3W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 77.1W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 28.2N 77.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 29.3N 78.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 29.9N 77.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.5N 76.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.2N 73.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 32.5N 67.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 36.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 77.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 10

2019-09-14 22:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 142035 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.3W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.3W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.2N 120.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.4N 122.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.7N 123.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 123.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.7N 126.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 19.3N 128.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 20.0N 130.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 119.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Humberto Graphics

2019-09-14 19:35:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2019 17:35:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2019 15:24:40 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Humberto (AT4/AL092019)

2019-09-14 19:34:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HUMBERTO CRAWLING NORTHWESTWARD... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... As of 2:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 the center of Humberto was located near 27.1, -77.1 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Humberto Public Advisory Number 8A

2019-09-14 19:34:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 141734 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 ...HUMBERTO CRAWLING NORTHWESTWARD... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 77.1W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 77.1 West. After several hours meandering, Humberto has begun to move toward the northwest at 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with gradual turn to the north is expected during the next day or so. A sharp turn to the northeast is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto should gradually move away from the northwestern Bahamas today or tonight, and then move well offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend and early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Humberto is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday night well east of the east coast of Florida. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) to the north and east of the center. The latest minimum central pressure just reported by a reconnaissance plane was 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still expected within portions of the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas today. These winds should subside later today or tonight. RAINFALL: Humberto is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Monday: The Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals of 6 inches. Portions of the Florida and Georgia coasts...up to 1 inch. STORM SURGE: Humberto is not expected to product significant storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas. SURF: Swells generated by Humberto are expected to increase and effect the coast from east-central Florida to South Carolina late this weekend and early next week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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