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Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 6

2017-08-19 22:35:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 192035 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Kenneth is on a strengthening trend. The cloud pattern of the tropical storm consists of a central dense overcast and curved outer bands, mostly on the south and west portions of the circulation. A partial SSMI/S overpass around 1500 UTC shows a mid-level eye feature, but it also indicated that the system is still vertically tilted from northeast to southwest, likely the result of northeasterly shear. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are unanimously 3.5/55 kt, and the initial wind speed is increased to that value. Kenneth is moving west-northwestward at 16 kt on the south side of a narrow mid-level ridge. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest is expected during the next 2 to 3 days while the storm moves toward the southwestern periphery of the ridge. Thereafter, an even slower motion toward the north-northwest is forecast as Kenneth moves into a break in the ridge caused by a large-scale trough off of the west coast of the United States. The track models have shifted a little to the south and west this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in those directions. The environmental conditions appear generally favorable for Kenneth to keep strengthening during the next 36 hours or so, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane as early as tonight. After that time, SSTs fall below 26 deg C along the expected path of Kenneth, and these cool waters combined with a drier air mass should end the strengthening trend and induce gradual weakening. An increase in south-southwesterly shear in 4 to 5 days will also aid in the weakening process. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one and is in best agreement with the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. This forecast also calls for Kenneth to become a post-tropical cyclone by the end of the period when it will be over SSTs near 22 deg C. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 15.9N 123.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 16.5N 125.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 17.2N 127.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 18.1N 130.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 19.1N 131.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 21.8N 133.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 24.4N 134.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 27.1N 135.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 6

2017-08-19 22:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 192034 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 123.8W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 123.8W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.9W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.5N 125.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.2N 127.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.1N 130.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.1N 131.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.8N 133.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 24.4N 134.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 27.1N 135.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 123.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Storm Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)

2017-08-19 22:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...KENNETH IS STRENGTHENING QUICKLY...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 the center of Kenneth was located near 15.9, -123.8 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Depression Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 10

2017-08-19 22:34:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 192034 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 The cloud pattern of Harvey has continued to decay during the day, at least in part due to 15-20 kt of northerly shear. The convective area near the center is neither very concentrated or curved, and overall the pattern more resembles that of an open wave than a tropical cyclone. Based on the decay and data from the aircraft mission this morning, the cyclone is downgraded to a tropical depression. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the system this evening to see if the circulation still exists. The intensity forecast is problematic. The current shear should subside over the next 24 h, and the statistical guidance responds to this by forecasting significant strengthening. On the other hand, the structure of the cyclone has decayed to the point where it may not be able to take advantage of the better environment, as suggested by the ECMWF and GFS. The intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast, albeit with lower intensities, in showing gradual strengthening until landfall in Belize or Yucatan. However, an alternative forecast scenario is that the system degenerates to an open wave and is unable to regenerate during the next 72 h. The initial motion remains 275/19. There is no change in the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, and there are only minor tweaks to the forecast track. A low- to mid-level ridge extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey, or its remnants, on a fast westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the next 36 h. Thereafter, there should be a weakness in the ridge north of Harvey caused by a strong mid/upper-level low currently seen in water vapor imagery over the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should cause a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed. The track guidance remains in good agreement that Harvey should pass near or just north of northeastern Honduras, and then cross Belize and/or the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of the northern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua tonight. At the present time, there is enough uncertainty about whether Harvey will actually be a tropical storm in 48 h that a watch is not warranted. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 14.1N 70.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 14.3N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 14.6N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 15.2N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 16.0N 83.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 18.0N 89.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 24/1800Z 19.5N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2017-08-19 22:34:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 192033 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 2(24) X(24) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) X(26) X(26) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Depression Harvey Public Advisory Number 10

2017-08-19 22:34:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 192033 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 ...HARVEY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 70.0W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NNW OF CURACAO ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea, northern Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Harvey. Watches may be required for portions of these areas tonight. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 70.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the central and western Caribbean Sea through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, and Harvey could regain tropical storm status Sunday or Sunday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Summary for Tropical Depression Harvey (AT4/AL092017)

2017-08-19 22:34:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HARVEY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 the center of Harvey was located near 14.1, -70.0 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 10

2017-08-19 22:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 192033 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 70.0W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 70.0W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 69.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.3N 73.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.6N 77.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.2N 80.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.0N 83.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.0N 89.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 19.5N 94.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 70.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-08-19 19:46:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 191745 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Harvey, located over the central Caribbean Sea. A trough of low pressure located about 250 miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development during the next couple of days while the system system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph. Conditions may become a little more conducive early next week while the system is near the Bahamas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean about midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual development over the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 20 mph, but upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable by early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-08-19 19:32:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 191731 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kenneth, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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