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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-20 04:33:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK DECAYS TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA... ...THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS CONTINUES... As of 9:00 PM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 18.0, -100.8 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Public Advisory Number 15
2025-06-20 04:33:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 628 WTPZ35 KNHC 200232 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...ERICK DECAYS TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA... ...THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 100.8W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 100.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue until the system dissipates over Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and the post-tropical low is expected to dissipate later tonight or early Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches through the night mainly in the state of Guerrero with storm totals of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with maximum totals of 5 inches, are expected across the states of Michoacan and Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: A few wind gusts to tropical-storm force may occur this evening in squalls and in mountainous regions near the center of Erick. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to gradually subside through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through the evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by the Meteorological Service of Mexico. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick Forecast Advisory Number 15
2025-06-20 04:32:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 20 2025 202 WTPZ25 KNHC 200232 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0300 UTC FRI JUN 20 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 100.8W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 100.8W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 100.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 102.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 100.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Erick Graphics
2025-06-20 01:39:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 23:38:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 21:21:40 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-06-20 01:37:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
116 ABPZ20 KNHC 192337TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 PM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin inland over southern Mexico.Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development after that time as the system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.$$Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Depression Erick (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-20 01:35:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... As of 6:00 PM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 17.7, -100.2 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Erick Public Advisory Number 14a
2025-06-20 01:35:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 192335 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 600 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...ERICK RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 100.2W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Erick was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 100.2 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is forecast to move over southern and southwestern Mexico until it dissipates tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Erick will likely dissipate tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches mainly in the state of Guerrero with storm totals of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the states of Michoacan and Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for the next several hours in squalls and in mountainous regions near the center of Erick. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to gradually subside through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through the evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-06-20 01:07:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000ABNT20 KNHC 192307TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Erick Graphics
2025-06-19 23:21:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 20:58:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 21:21:40 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2025-06-19 22:33:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 429 FOPZ15 KNHC 192032 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 2100 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ACAPULCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P MALDONADO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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