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Summary for Tropical Storm Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)

2017-08-19 16:46:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...KENNETH A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 the center of Kenneth was located near 15.8, -121.8 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 5

2017-08-19 16:45:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 191445 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 121.8W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 15SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 121.8W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 121.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.4N 124.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.0N 126.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.9N 128.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.9N 130.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.5N 132.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 24.3N 133.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 27.0N 134.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 121.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-08-19 13:25:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 191124 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Harvey, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea. A trough of low pressure located about 300 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development during the next few days while this system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean about midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual development over the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 20 mph, but upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable by early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-08-19 13:24:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 191124 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kenneth, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Kenneth are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Kenneth Public Advisory Number 4

2017-08-19 12:23:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 191022 CCA TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 4...CORRRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 CORRECTED STORM NAME IN DISCUSSION SECTION ...TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 120.2W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 120.2 West. Kenneth is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion should continue during the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Kenneth could become a hurricane on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Summary for Tropical Storm Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)

2017-08-19 12:23:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 the center of Kenneth was located near 15.6, -120.2 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics

2017-08-19 10:45:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 08:45:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 09:22:40 GMT

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Tropical Storm Kenneth Graphics

2017-08-19 10:45:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 08:45:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 09:29:11 GMT

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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 8

2017-08-19 10:43:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 190842 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 500 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017 GOES-16 shortwave infrared imagery shows the partially exposed center of Harvey on the eastern edge of a large area of deep convection. While the center is closer to the convection than a few hours ago, cirrus clouds be clearly seen moving from northeast to southwest across the system; an indication of the persistent shear. Satellite estimates suggest the maximum winds of Harvey remain 35 kt. The storm has picked up some forward speed with a recent motion estimate of 275/18. A low- to mid-level ridge extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey on a fast westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the next 48 hours. Thereafter, the ridge weakens across the Gulf of Mexico due to a strong mid/upper-level low currently seen there on water vapor images. This steering flow change should cause Harvey to slow down and turn a little more to the west-northwest in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, with an even slower motion forecast for Harvey in the Bay of Campeche. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and no significant changes were made to the previous forecast. Harvey should be moving into a more conducive environment for strengthening early next week since the strong northeasterly shear that has been affecting the cyclone is forecast by almost all of the guidance to weaken within about 24 hours. In a few days, most of the global models show a favorable upper-level environment for intensification, and Harvey could be near hurricane strength between the 72 hour forecast period and landfall. There has been little change to the guidance so the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, close to the model consensus. However, with a weak storm moving so quickly across the central Caribbean, one always has to be careful of the system opening up into a wave. This is a plausible alternative scenario still suggested by the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 13.8N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 14.0N 68.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 14.3N 72.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 14.6N 76.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 15.2N 80.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 17.0N 86.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 18.3N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 24/0600Z 19.3N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2017-08-19 10:42:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 190841 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0900 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 1(14) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 18(29) 1(30) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 4(33) X(33) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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