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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-09-14 19:21:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 141721 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kiko, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A broad area of low pressure located about 500 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward well offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Another weak area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this disturbance remain disorganized, however, conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while the system moves west-northwestward, near or parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-09-14 19:15:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 141714 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Humberto, centered just east-northeast of the northwestern Bahamas. An elongated area of disturbed weather is located about 750 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A large area of cloudiness and showers over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is associated with an upper-level low and a weak surface trough. Only slow development of this system is likely during the next couple of days while it moves westward over the western Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to move inland along the northwestern Gulf coast by late Monday or Tuesday and development is not expected after that time. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics

2019-09-14 16:56:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2019 14:56:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2019 14:56:28 GMT

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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 9

2019-09-14 16:55:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 141455 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Kiko's cloud pattern has continued to quickly organize overnight and this morning. A couple of high-resolution microwave overpass from several hours ago revealed significant banding around the center, and that a banded eye had formed. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB at 1200 UTC were 55 kt, and the UW/CIMSS ADT is now up to about 60 kt. Based on the continued increase in organization, the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt. Kiko is forecast to remain over warm water and in a low wind shear environment during the next day or so. This should allow for additional intensification, and Kiko is expected to become a hurricane later today. The new NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity and is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model, which is at the upper-end of the guidance envelope. By 72 hours, Kiko will be moving into an area of increasing westerly shear and over slightly cooler waters. As a result, steady weakening is anticipated later in forecast period. The tropical storm is moving westward (280/9 kt) to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. The track models still exhibit an usually large spread after 48 hours, especially for a system in the eastern Pacific basin. This appears to be the result of the forecast vertical depth of Kiko and how the cyclone responds to a developing weakness in the ridge. The GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and HWRF show a more northerly track, with a stronger Kiko heading toward the break in the ridge. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and UKMET take a weaker Kiko on a more westerly heading. Since the NHC forecast shows Kiko a stronger and vertically deep system during the next couple of days, the track forecast lies a little north of the consensus models. After that time, Kiko is likely to weaken and the official forecast shows a turn back toward the west, as Kiko comes under the influence of the low-level easterly flow. As a result of the large model spread, the confidence in the track forecast remains lower than normal. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 17.4N 118.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 17.6N 119.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 18.3N 122.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 18.8N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 19.6N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 20.3N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 20.7N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2019-09-14 16:55:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 141454 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 120W 34 3 14(17) 7(24) 3(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 23(29) 36(65) 4(69) 1(70) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 2(29) X(29) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 6(17) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)

2019-09-14 16:54:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...KIKO QUICKLY STRENGTHENS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 the center of Kiko was located near 17.4, -118.3 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 9

2019-09-14 16:53:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 141453 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 118.3W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 118.3W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 117.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.6N 119.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.3N 122.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.8N 123.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.6N 125.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 20.3N 128.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 20.7N 131.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 118.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Humberto Graphics

2019-09-14 16:51:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2019 14:51:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2019 14:51:05 GMT

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Tropical Storm Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 8

2019-09-14 16:49:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 202 WTNT44 KNHC 141449 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 The center of Humberto is better defined today, but due to shear, it is still located south of the main area of deep convection. Satellite images indicate that a cyclonically-curved convective band is also developing southeast of the center. Recent reports from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the winds have increased, and the maximum intensity has been adjusted upward to 45 kt. These strong winds are confined to the north and east of the center of the cyclone. The current unfavorable shear over Humberto is forecast to weaken, and since the cyclone is expected to move over warm waters, the NHC forecast calls for strengthening. Humberto is anticipated to become a hurricane in about 36 hours over the western Atlantic well east of the Florida east coast and well away from the Bahamas. The intensity forecast is consistent with the solutions of the consensus model and the corrected consensus HCCA. In addition, all global models intensify Humberto and show an increase in the size of the storm. Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Humberto has barely moved during the past few hours. Humberto is being trapped by a ridge to the north, but this feature is forecast to weaken. The expected flow pattern should steer the cyclone very slowly toward the northwest and north during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies, and most likely, Humberto will sharply recurve northeastward away from the United States with no significant increase in forward speed. Only by the end of the forecast period, Humberto should begin to accelerate. The NHC forecast is very consistent with the track guidance which clearly depict the slow motion of the system and the sharp turn to the right in 2 or 3 days. Key Messages: 1. Humberto will likely bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the northwestern Bahamas today. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwestern Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 26.6N 76.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 27.6N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 28.7N 78.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 29.5N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 30.0N 77.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 30.5N 74.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 31.5N 70.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 34.5N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Summary for Tropical Storm Humberto (AT4/AL092019)

2019-09-14 16:49:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS HUMBERTO STRENGTHENING... ...HUMBERTO HAS BARELY MOVED THIS MORNING... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 the center of Humberto was located near 26.6, -76.7 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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