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Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics

2017-08-19 16:56:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 14:56:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 14:56:08 GMT

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Tropical Storm Kenneth Graphics

2017-08-19 16:51:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 14:51:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 14:51:26 GMT

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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 9

2017-08-19 16:49:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 191449 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017 Harvey has become less organized in visible imagery since this time yesterday, with the convective pattern becoming elongated and the circulation looking less well defined. In addition, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft could not close the circulation at 850 mb, but was able to close the circulation at 1000 ft. The plane has not yet reported tropical-storm-force winds, but the northwestern quadrant was not well sampled. Thus, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt. The initial motion is now 275/19. A low- to mid-level ridge extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey on a fast westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the next 36-48 hours. Thereafter, there should be a weakness in the ridge north of Harvey caused by a strong mid/upper-level low currently seen in water vapor imagery over the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should cause a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed. The track guidance is in good agreement that Harvey should pass near or just north of northeastern Honduras, and then cross Belize and/or the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche, and based on this the new forecast track follows the guidance with only minor changes from the previous track. The ongoing moderate vertical shear should continue for another 12-24 h or so, and combined with the current lack of organization should allow at best only slow strengthening. After that, the upper-level winds are expected to become favorable for strengthening as the system moves over the deep warm waters of the western Caribbean. The intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in calling for a peak intensity of 60 kt just before the system reaches Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula. Harvey should weaken as it crosses the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula between 72-96 h, followed by some re-intensification over the Bay of Campeche. It should be noted that any additional loss of organization in the next 12-24 h would result in the cyclone degenerating into an easterly wave. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 13.9N 68.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 14.1N 70.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 14.4N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 14.9N 78.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 15.7N 82.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 17.5N 88.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 19.0N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 19.5N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2017-08-19 16:48:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 8(33) 1(34) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 1(36) X(36) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN

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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 9

2017-08-19 16:47:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 191447 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 68.1W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 68.1W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 67.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.1N 70.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.4N 74.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.9N 78.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.7N 82.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.5N 88.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 19.0N 91.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 19.5N 93.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 68.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 9

2017-08-19 16:47:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 191447 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017 ...HARVEY STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT LESS ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 68.1W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NNE OF CURACAO ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea, northern Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Harvey. Watches may be required for portions of these areas later today. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 68.1 West. Harvey is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the central and western Caribbean Sea over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Harvey is currently poorly organized, and only slow strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly to the northwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter data and data from NOAA buoy 42059 is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Locally heavy rain could occur today over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)

2017-08-19 16:47:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HARVEY STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT LESS ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 19 the center of Harvey was located near 13.9, -68.1 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 5

2017-08-19 16:46:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 191446 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 A couple of recent microwave overpasses has revealed that the center of Kenneth remains near the northeastern edge of the deep convection. Although the upper-level outflow is well established over the southwestern and western portions of the circulation, it is somewhat restricted over the northeastern quadrant due to about 15 kt of shear as diagnosed by a UW-CIMSS shear analysis. Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers are around 3.0 (45 kt) from the various agencies, but the initial wind speed is conservatively raised to 40 kt, since I would rather wait to see visible satellite images to get a better handle on Kenneth's structure. Kenneth is moving west-northwestward, 285 degrees, at 14 kt. The tropical storm is moving around the southwestern portion of a low- to mid-level ridge that is located just west of the southern Baja peninsula. Kenneth is expected to reach the western portion of the ridge in about 48 hours, which should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward later in the period. The track guidance remains in good agreement through 48 hours, but diverges after that time. The latest run of the GFS has shifted a little westward, but remains along the eastern side of the guidance envelope, with the ECMWF along the western edge. The new NHC track forecast has been nudged westward to be closer to the various consensus aids that have generally shifted in that direction this cycle. The global models predict that the upper-level wind pattern over Kenneth should become more conducive for strengthening over the next day or so. During that time Kenneth will be moving over SSTs of 27 to 28C, which should allow for intensification, and the NHC foreast once again brings Kenneth to hurricane strength on Sunday. After 48 hours, decreasing SSTs should result in gradual weakening. The updated NHC intensity foreast is a little above the statistical guidance and ICON consensus model through 48 hours, but is generally close to the HFIP corrected consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 15.8N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 16.4N 124.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 17.0N 126.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 17.9N 128.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 18.9N 130.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 21.5N 132.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 24.3N 133.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 27.0N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2017-08-19 16:46:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 191445 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 1500 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 44(53) 14(67) X(67) X(67) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 10(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) X(17) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 6(22) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 30N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Kenneth Public Advisory Number 5

2017-08-19 16:46:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 191445 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 ...KENNETH A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 121.8W ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 121.8 West. Kenneth is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west- northwestward motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Kenneth is forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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