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Tropical Storm Erick Public Advisory Number 14
2025-06-19 22:32:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 601 WTPZ35 KNHC 192032 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...ERICK WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 99.7W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings east of Punta Maldonado and downgraded the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning from Acapulco to Punta Maldonado. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 99.7 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is forecast to move over southern and southwestern Mexico until it dissipates tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Erick will likely dissipate tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches of rainfall mainly in the state of Guerrero with storm totals of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the states of Michoacan and Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur for a few more hours in the warning area. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to gradually subside through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through the evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Advisory Number 14
2025-06-19 22:32:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 600 WTPZ25 KNHC 192032 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 2100 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 99.7W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 99.7W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 99.3W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.3N 101.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 99.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Erick Graphics
2025-06-19 19:31:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 17:31:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 15:22:21 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Erick (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-19 19:30:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE ERICK MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... As of 12:00 PM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 17.1, -99.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Erick Public Advisory Number 13a
2025-06-19 19:30:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 191730 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erick Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 1200 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...HURRICANE ERICK MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 99.0W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ENE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Escondido A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 99.0 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is forecast to move over southern and southwestern Mexico until it dissipates tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Erick will likely dissipate tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches in portions of the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero with storm totals of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the states of, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to continue for a couple of more hours in portions of the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions will likely continue into the late afternoon in the tropical storm warning area. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding along portions of the coast of southern Mexico in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico throughout the day. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-06-19 19:25:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000ABPZ20 KNHC 191725TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin inland over southern Mexico. Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:An area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week off the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development after that time as the system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.$$Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-06-19 19:22:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000ABNT20 KNHC 191722TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Erick Graphics
2025-06-19 17:22:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 14:39:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 15:22:21 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Erick Forecast Discussion Number 13
2025-06-19 16:38:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 191438 TCDEP5 Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 Erick made landfall in the municipality of Santiago Pinotepa Nacional in extreme western Oaxaca, Mexico, around 1130 UTC this morning with maximum sustained winds estimated to be near 110 kt (125 mph). It should be noted that the major hurricane's structure was degrading as it approached the coast. In fact, the eye feature was not apparent at the landfall time, making the exact location and time that Erick crossed the coast uncertain. Erick was the earliest major hurricane landfall in Mexico since records began, and that includes both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. The hurricane has been rapidly weakening since it made landfall. The inner core appears to be collapsing with cloud tops warming near the center. The strongest convection is located to the west of the inner core near and to the south of Acapulco. The initial intensity is lowered to 75 kt, but there is a high amount of uncertainty around that value. Continued rapid weakening is forecast as the system moves northwestward and farther inland, and Erick is expected to dissipate over the rugged terrain of southwestern Mexico by tonight. Although the winds are expected to continue to decrease rapidly, heavy rains will linger over portions of southern and southwestern Mexico. So far, there has been a report of about 250 mm (10 in) of rain in El Marques in Oaxaca, and additional heavy rains are expected through tonight. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick will continue to produce heavy rainfall across portions of Southwest Mexico mainly through tonight. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. 2. Hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will continue for a couple of more hours in the hurricane warning area. 3. Storm surge could still produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.7N 98.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/0000Z 17.5N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Erick (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-19 16:37:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE ERICK MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...FLOODING RAINS AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE... As of 9:00 AM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 16.7, -98.8 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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