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Subtropical Storm Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

2018-07-15 22:34:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 15 2018 718 FONT12 KNHC 152034 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 2100 UTC SUN JUL 15 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Subtropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 21

2018-07-15 22:34:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Jul 15 2018 763 WTNT42 KNHC 152034 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 500 PM AST Sun Jul 15 2018 Beryl is less organized than 24 h ago, with the cyclone currently comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds and occasional puffs of convection in the southeastern quadrant. The low-level center has also become completely detached from a large-scale cloud band farther to the east. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based mainly on earlier scatterometer data, and this data was also used to revise the initial wind radii. Beryl has been moving slowly eastward most of the day. However, the last few satellite images suggest a more northward motion is beginning, so the initial motion is an uncertain 075/5. A broad deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving eastward across eastern Canada and the northeastern United States should cause the cyclone to turn northeastward with some acceleration tonight, with a faster northeastward motion expected on Monday and Monday night. The track guidance has shifted to the east on this advisory, so the new forecast track has been adjusted in that direction. However, the new track lies to the west of the center of the guidance envelope and the various consensus models. The new forecast track again keeps the center over the Gulf Stream for 12 h, and the intensity forecast maintains the initial intensity during that time. After that, a quick decay over cold water should occur, and the new intensity forecast now calls for Beryl to dissipate completely between 36-48 h in agreement with the dynamical guidance. The low-level center is still under strong northwesterly vertical shear, and microwave data suggests that dry air has wrapped around the circulation. If these factors prevent the quick re-development of convection, the system could dissipate even earlier than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 38.2N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 39.2N 62.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 41.3N 59.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0600Z 44.0N 56.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Subtropical Storm Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 21

2018-07-15 22:34:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 15 2018 255 WTNT22 KNHC 152034 TCMAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 2100 UTC SUN JUL 15 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 63.8W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 63.8W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 64.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 39.2N 62.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 41.3N 59.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 44.0N 56.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.2N 63.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Subtropical Storm Beryl Public Advisory Number 21

2018-07-15 22:34:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Jul 15 2018 254 WTNT32 KNHC 152034 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 500 PM AST Sun Jul 15 2018 ...BERYL MOVING A LITTLE FASTER... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.2N 63.8W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM N OF BERMUDA ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 38.2 North, longitude 63.8 West. The storm is moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed are expected tonight, with this motion continuing Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl should begin to weaken tonight when it moves over colder water, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system late tonight or on Monday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Summary for Subtropical Storm Beryl (AT2/AL022018)

2018-07-15 22:34:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...BERYL MOVING A LITTLE FASTER... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Jul 15 the center of Beryl was located near 38.2, -63.8 with movement ENE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Church st. closed for water main repair.

2018-07-15 21:27:50| CUMTD Alerts

Church St. closed for water main repair for Eastbound traffic between State and Neil st.Duration: 5 days3S Lavender: State to University to Illinois Terminal and regular route.9A Brown: State to University to Illinois Terminal and regular route.70E Grey: State to University to Illinois Terminal and regular route.

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-07-15 19:30:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

750 ABNT20 KNHC 151730 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical Storm Beryl, located about 400 miles north of Bermuda. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next five days. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-07-15 19:29:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

190 ABPZ20 KNHC 151729 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 15 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Satellite images indicate that the circulation of low pressure system located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has become a little better defined today. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is still not particularly well organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days before upper-level winds increase. This system is expected to move westward and it should cross into the Central Pacific basin on Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Subtropical Storm Beryl Graphics

2018-07-15 16:37:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jul 2018 14:37:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jul 2018 14:37:55 GMT

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Subtropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 20

2018-07-15 16:36:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Jul 15 2018 370 WTNT42 KNHC 151436 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 AM AST Sun Jul 15 2018 Overall, Beryl has become less organized since yesterday, with the cyclone currently comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with minimal convection in the southeastern quadrant. While the low-level center remains over the Gulf Stream, GOES-16 airmass imagery indicates that the center is now west of the associated upper-level trough and that significant northerly vertical shear is occurring. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on a subtropical intensity estimate from TAFB, and it could be a little generous. The storm has drifted east-northeastward during the past 12 h, with the initial motion now 075/3. A deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving eastward across eastern Canada and the northeastern United States should cause the cyclone to resume a northeastward motion by tonight, with a faster northeastward motion expected on Monday and Tuesday. The new forecast track is nudged a little to the east of the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. Since the new forecast track keeps the center over the Gulf Stream for another 12 h, the intensity forecast calls for little change in strength during that time. After that, a quick decay over cold water should occur, and the new intensity forecast is the same as the previous forecast in calling for Beryl to dissipate completely by 72 h. It should be noted that if the convection does not increase above its current level, the system could weaken and dissipate earlier than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 38.1N 64.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 39.0N 63.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 40.8N 61.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z 43.2N 58.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z 45.9N 55.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

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