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Hurricane Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2025-06-19 10:52:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 302 FOPZ15 KNHC 190851 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0900 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 100W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 34 67 12(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) ACAPULCO 50 5 13(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ACAPULCO 64 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P MALDONADO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P MALDONADO 50 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) P MALDONADO 64 75 X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) P ANGEL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Erick (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-19 10:52:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...BRINGING EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS NEAR ITS CORE... As of 3:00 AM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 15.9, -97.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 940 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Erick Public Advisory Number 12
2025-06-19 10:52:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 239 WTPZ35 KNHC 190851 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...ERICK VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...BRINGING EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS NEAR ITS CORE... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 97.9W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Angel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 97.9 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to make landfall in the western portion of the Mexican state of Oaxaca or the eastern portion of the Mexican state of Guerrero within the next few hours, and then continue inland over southern Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Erick is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. After landfall, Erick should rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico, and the system is likely to dissipate tonight or early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with maximum totals of 16 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning during the next few hours, with extremely destructive winds near the core of Erick. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area today. Tropical Storm conditions are currently spreading onshore in the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in the tropical storm warning area. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Erick Forecast Advisory Number 12
2025-06-19 10:51:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 536 WTPZ25 KNHC 190850 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0900 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 97.9W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS.... 15NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 97.9W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 97.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 98.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 99.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 97.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Erick Graphics
2025-06-19 07:47:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 05:46:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Jun 2025 05:46:54 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-06-19 07:47:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
228 ABPZ20 KNHC 190546TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1100 PM PDT Wed Jun 18 2025For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Erick, located in the eastern Pacific basin near the coast of southwestern Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Gibbs
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Erick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2025-06-19 07:46:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0600 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 325 FOPZ15 KNHC 190544 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ERICK SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0600 UTC THU JUN 19 2025 AT 0600Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 100W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 4 18(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ACAPULCO 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P MALDONADO 34 92 5(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) P MALDONADO 50 37 21(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) P MALDONADO 64 11 19(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) P ANGEL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HUATULCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Erick Forecast Discussion Number 11
2025-06-19 07:45:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 459 WTPZ45 KNHC 190544 TCDEP5 Hurricane Erick Special Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 1200 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 This is a special advisory mainly to update the intensity of Erick. After an earlier eyewall replacement, satellite images indicate very deep convection is wrapping around the eye of the hurricane. Using a blend of objective ADT Dvorak estimates and SATCON values from UW/CIMSS yields a current intensity estimate of 125 kt, which is used for this advisory. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next couple of hours, although the interaction with land should halt the intensification process. Erick will weaken rapidly after making landfall. A slight leftward adjustment was made to the forecast track based on the recent motion, which is now 305/8 kt. This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 06Z intermediate advisory. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick is now an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane, and devastating wind damage is likely where the core moves onshore. Weather conditions are already deteriorating in the warning area, and preparations to protect life and property should have been completed. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0600Z 15.5N 97.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 98.0W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0000Z 17.4N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Erick (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-19 07:44:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 12:00 AM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 15.5, -97.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 939 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Erick Public Advisory Number 11
2025-06-19 07:44:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 260 WTPZ35 KNHC 190544 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erick Special Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 1200 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...ERICK NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 97.5W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Puerto Angel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz * West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12-24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 97.5 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to make landfall in the western portion of the Mexican state of Oaxaca or the eastern portion of the Mexican state of Guerrero this morning, and then continue inland over southern Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Erick is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening could occur before landfall. After landfall, Erick should rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico, and the system is likely to dissipate Thursday night or early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with maximum totals of 16 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning during the next few hours, with extremely destructive winds near the core of Erick. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area today. Tropical Storm conditions are currently spreading onshore in the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning during the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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