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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 8

2017-08-19 10:42:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 190841 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 500 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017 ...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TODAY IN THE ABC ISLANDS FROM HARVEY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 65.9W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ENE OF CURACAO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Caribbean Sea and the adjacent land areas of eastern Central America and northern South America should monitor the progress of Harvey. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 65.9 West. Harvey is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km), primarily to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Locally heavy rain could occur today over Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao and the offshore islands of northern Venezuela. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)

2017-08-19 10:42:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TODAY IN THE ABC ISLANDS FROM HARVEY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 19 the center of Harvey was located near 13.8, -65.9 with movement W at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 8

2017-08-19 10:41:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 190841 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0900 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 65.9W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 65.9W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 65.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 14.0N 68.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.3N 72.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.6N 76.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.2N 80.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.0N 86.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 18.3N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.3N 93.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 65.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2017-08-19 10:39:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 190839 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0900 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 125W 34 X 20(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 125W 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 35(41) 30(71) 1(72) X(72) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) 1(34) X(34) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 3(18) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) X(16) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 30N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 4

2017-08-19 10:39:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190839 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Microwave data reveal that Kenneth is not well organized yet with the low- and mid-level centers well separated. The low-level center is located on the northeastern edge of the convection due to northerly shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model. The overall outflow pattern is well established. A partial ASCAT pass around 0500 UTC and Dvorak estimates indicate that the initial intensity remains at 35 kt. The shear is forecast to decrease a little, and Kenneth will be moving over warm waters for the next two days. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for some strengthening, and Kenneth could become a hurricane by Sunday. By the end of the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to be moving over cooler waters and weakening should then begin. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is embedded within the flow around the subtropical high, and this track should continue for the next day or two. After that time, Kenneth should have reached the western end of ridge, and it should then gradually turn more to the northwest or north-northwest. For the next 2 to 3 days, the track guidance is pretty tightly clustered, increasing the confidence in the forecast. Beyond 3 days, the forecast is less certain since the guidance spread is large. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope which is bounded by the ECMWF on the west side and by the GFS and the HWRF models on the right. The official forecast does not depart much from the previous one during the first 3 days, and is shifted a little bit to the right thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 15.6N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 16.0N 122.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 16.6N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 17.5N 127.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 18.5N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 20.5N 131.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 23.5N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 26.5N 133.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 4

2017-08-19 10:39:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 190839 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0900 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 120.2W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 120.2W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 119.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.0N 122.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.6N 125.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.5N 127.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.5N 129.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.5N 131.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.5N 132.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 26.5N 133.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 120.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm Kenneth Public Advisory Number 4

2017-08-19 10:39:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 190839 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 120.2W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 120.2 West. Kenneth is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion should continue during the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey could become a hurricane on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Summary for Tropical Storm Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)

2017-08-19 10:39:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 the center of Kenneth was located near 15.6, -120.2 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-08-19 07:32:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 190532 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Harvey, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea. A trough of low pressure located about 400 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development during the next few days while this system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean about midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual development over the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 20 mph, but upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable by the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-08-19 07:03:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 190503 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kenneth, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Kenneth are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3. $$ Forecaster Avila

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