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Tropical Storm Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2019-09-14 10:41:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 140841 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) 1(16) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 5(19) 1(20) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 5(19) X(19) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 12(22) 2(24) X(24) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 9(18) 2(20) X(20) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 5( 6) 12(18) 8(26) 4(30) 1(31) X(31) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) FT PIERCE FL 34 1 5( 6) 11(17) 7(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 6(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 39(46) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 34 9 10(19) 11(30) 7(37) 4(41) X(41) X(41) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 5 2( 7) 4(11) 4(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18) ANDROS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number speed wind stormCategory: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Humberto (AT4/AL092019)
2019-09-14 10:41:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF HUMBERTO NOW EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 the center of Humberto was located near 26.3, -76.0 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary storm tropical tropical stormCategory: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Humberto Public Advisory Number 7
2019-09-14 10:41:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 140841 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019 ...CENTER OF HUMBERTO NOW EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 76.0W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests along the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 76.0 West. Humberto is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected by Sunday, with a slower northward to northeastward motion forecast to occur by Monday. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move near or over the northwestern Bahamas today, and offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend and early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Humberto is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas today. RAINFALL: Humberto is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Monday: The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches. Portions of the Florida and Georgia coasts...1 to 2 inches. STORM SURGE: Humberto is not expected to product significant storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas. SURF: Swells generated by Humberto are expected to increase and effect the coast from east-central Florida to South Carolina late this weekend and early next week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number public storm advisoryCategory: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-14 10:41:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2019 08:41:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2019 09:31:24 GMT
Tags: graphics storm tropical kikoCategory: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 7
2019-09-14 10:41:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 140841 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 76.0W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 76.0W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 75.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 26.9N 76.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 28.0N 77.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 29.0N 77.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 29.8N 77.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.8N 74.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 31.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 33.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 76.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number storm advisory tropicalCategory: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-09-14 10:39:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 434 WTPZ43 KNHC 140839 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 A 0205 UTC WindSat pass showed that Kiko's low-level structure has become significantly better defined. The storm has also been producing a persistent cluster of deep convection, although microwave fixes suggest that the surface center is located beneath the eastern side of the convective mass. Satellite intensity estimates range from 45-55 kt, but scatterometer data from a few hours ago indicated that maximum winds were between 40-45 kt. Kiko's initial intensity is therefore held at 45 kt, but the cyclone's improved structure likely means that its winds will increase again soon. There's still a swath of dry air to the north and west of the storm, but now that the inner core has become more established, Kiko should be able to take advantage of low shear and sufficiently warm waters to strengthen during the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is very close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Florida State Superensemble (FSSE) during the first 36 hours, showing a little more strengthening than the previous forecast, and making Kiko a hurricane in 24 hours. While the new forecast is also a little higher at 48 hours, it's still below the HCCA, FSSE, and HWRF solutions, so additional adjustment could be required in subsequent advisories. Weakening should commence by day 3 due to little to no oceanic heat content and gradually increasing westerly shear. Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt. Mid-level ridging to the north should drive the cyclone on a westward to west-northwestward heading for the entire forecast period. The most significant gain in latitude should occur from Sunday through Tuesday when Kiko is at its strongest and responds to a break in the ridge between 120W and 130W. While the GFS and ECMWF models still prefer northern and southern solutions within the guidance envelope, respectively, the distance between the two at day 5 has been cut in half in the latest model runs, suggesting that the track uncertainty is not as high as it was previously. The NHC track forecast remains close to the various multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 17.3N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 17.4N 118.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 17.7N 119.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 18.1N 121.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 18.6N 122.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 19.5N 124.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 20.2N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 20.6N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2019-09-14 10:39:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 416 FOPZ13 KNHC 140839 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 2 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 120W 34 3 15(18) 16(34) 5(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 40(52) 7(59) 1(60) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) X(22) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-14 10:39:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 the center of Kiko was located near 17.3, -117.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 8
2019-09-14 10:39:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 140839 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 ...KIKO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 117.1W ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 117.1 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward or west-northwestward course at a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Kiko is expected to become a hurricane by tonight and maintain hurricane intensity into Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 8
2019-09-14 10:39:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 140839 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 117.1W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 117.1W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 116.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.4N 118.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.7N 119.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.1N 121.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.6N 122.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.5N 124.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 20.2N 126.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.6N 129.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 117.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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