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Tropical Depression Carlotta Graphics

2018-06-17 22:37:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Jun 2018 20:37:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Jun 2018 21:23:17 GMT

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Tropical Depression Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 13

2018-06-17 22:35:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 172035 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 Data from a recent scatterometer pass indicated Carlotta still had a small circulation, but that it was quite weak with maximum winds near 25 kt. Persistent northerly shear continues to affect the depression. The system has lacked much organized deep convection for the past several hours and it is likely to degenerate into a remnant low overnight. Accordingly, the official forecast shows the system becoming post-tropical by early Monday. Based on the ASCAT observations, the center has been re-positioned a little to the southeast of the previous track. The initial motion estimate is now 300/6 kt. High pressure to the north of Carlotta should maintain a general west-northwestward track for the next day or two. The main threat from Carlotta continues to be heavy rains over the southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima. These rains, which will likely be enhanced by moist upslope flow over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico, could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Consult products issued by your national meteorological service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 17.1N 101.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 17.5N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Depression Carlotta Public Advisory Number 13

2018-06-17 22:34:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 172034 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Carlotta Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 ...CARLOTTA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 101.9W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warning in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlotta was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 101.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center will be moving parallel to but just offshore of the coast of Mexico through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Carlotta is expected to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or early Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero, Michoacan and Colima coasts, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches possible. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast. SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Summary for Tropical Depression Carlotta (EP4/EP042018)

2018-06-17 22:34:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CARLOTTA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 the center of Carlotta was located near 17.1, -101.9 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

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Tropical Depression Carlotta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2018-06-17 22:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 17 2018 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 172034 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018 2100 UTC SUN JUN 17 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Depression Carlotta Forecast Advisory Number 13

2018-06-17 22:34:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 17 2018 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 172034 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018 2100 UTC SUN JUN 17 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 101.9W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 101.9W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 101.7W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.5N 102.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 101.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Depression Carlotta Graphics

2018-06-17 20:12:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Jun 2018 18:12:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Jun 2018 15:25:38 GMT

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Tropical Depression Carlotta Public Advisory Number 12A

2018-06-17 20:04:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 171803 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Carlotta Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 ...CARLOTTA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 101.6W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Tecpan De Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warning in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlotta was estimated to be near near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 101.6 West. Carlotta is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the small core of Carlotta or its remnant should move inland over southern Mexico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Carlotta could dissipate later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero and Michoacan coasts, including the city of Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches possible. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast. SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Summary for Tropical Depression Carlotta (EP4/EP042018)

2018-06-17 20:04:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CARLOTTA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 the center of Carlotta was located near 17.2, -101.6 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-06-17 19:25:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 171725 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The combination of a surface trough and an upper-level low pressure system is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the west-central Gulf of Mexico. This system is producing strong gusty winds over the northern and northwestern Gulf. Environmental conditions do not support significant development, however, heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to continue across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico today. This activity will reach portions of the Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts later today or tonight. For more details on this system, please see products issued by your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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