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Tropical Storm Dora Graphics

2017-06-25 22:43:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Jun 2017 20:43:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Jun 2017 20:43:40 GMT

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Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Discussion Number 4

2017-06-25 22:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 252038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Dora continues to exhibit well-defined convective spiral bands, with a developing CDO. Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are 3.0 so the intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. The tropical cyclone will be in a low-shear environment with anticyclonic upper-level flow for several days. These dynamical factors would favor intensification. Waters beneath Dora, however, will begin to cool soon and the system should encounter significantly cooler waters within 48 hours or so. Therefore the window of opportunity for strengthening is decreasing, especially since the cyclone is moving a little faster than before. The official intensity forecast is close to the ICON consensus and still shows Dora becoming a hurricane within 24 hours. The latest center fixes yield a faster motion of around 300/12 kt. A well-established subtropical ridge to the north of Dora should produce a continued west-northwestward motion for much of the forecast period. By days 4 and 5 a more westward track is likely due to the system weakening and becoming a shallow vortex. The official track forecast is somewhat faster than the previous one, close to, or a little south of, the latest model consensus. Although Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the tropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rains to portions of coastal southwestern Mexico during the day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 15.7N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 16.6N 104.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 17.6N 106.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 18.5N 108.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 19.0N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 19.8N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 20.0N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z 19.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Dora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2017-06-25 22:38:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 25 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 252037 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 2100 UTC SUN JUN 25 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 105W 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MANZANILLO 34 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 32(53) 5(58) 1(59) X(59) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 36(50) 13(63) X(63) X(63) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 8(25) X(25) X(25) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 4(22) 1(23) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 9(32) X(32) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Dora Public Advisory Number 4

2017-06-25 22:38:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 252037 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dora Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 ...DORA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW... ...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 103.0W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dora was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 103.0 West. Dora is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Dora is expected to move parallel to but remain offshore of the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Dora is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dora is expected to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacan through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Summary for Tropical Storm Dora (EP4/EP042017)

2017-06-25 22:38:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DORA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW... ...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 the center of Dora was located near 15.7, -103.0 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Advisory Number 4

2017-06-25 22:37:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 25 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 252037 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 2100 UTC SUN JUN 25 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 103.0W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 103.0W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 102.5W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.6N 104.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.6N 106.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.5N 108.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.0N 110.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.8N 114.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 20.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 19.5N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 103.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-06-25 19:24:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 251723 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-06-25 19:20:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 251720 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 25 2017 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Dora, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dora are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dora are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Dora Graphics

2017-06-25 16:38:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Jun 2017 14:38:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Jun 2017 14:38:38 GMT

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Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Discussion Number 3

2017-06-25 16:33:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 251433 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Dora's cloud pattern continues to become better organized, with more distinct convective banding features developing. The current intensity estimate is set at 45 kt in agreement with a Dvorak classification of T3.0 from TAFB. The dynamical environment should remain very favorable for additional intensification, with upper-level anticyclonic flow over the storm and low vertical shear for the next several days. Sea surface temperatures, however, should begin to decrease significantly in 48 hours or so, which will halt the strengthening trend. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest model consensus. It should be noted that Dora could strengthen more than indicated here in the short term, given that the SHIPS RII shows an above normal probability of rapid intensification during the next day or so. The initial motion estimate is 295/10 kt. A well-defined mid-tropospheric ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of Dora for the next several days. This should maintain a west-northwestward track for much of the forecast period, and the track model guidance is tightly clustered for the next 3-4 days. Late in the forecast period, the weakening and increasingly shallow cyclone is likely to turn westward following the low-level steering flow. The official track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. Although Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the tropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rains to portions of coastal southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 15.0N 101.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 15.8N 103.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 16.8N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 17.8N 106.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 18.6N 108.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 19.6N 111.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 20.3N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 20.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

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