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Tropical Storm Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

2025-07-03 16:34:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 756 FOPZ11 KNHC 031433 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN


Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Flossie (EP1/EP062025)

2025-07-03 16:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...FLOSSIE WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER COOL WATER... As of 8:00 AM MST Thu Jul 03 the center of Flossie was located near 20.6, -111.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.


Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

Tropical Storm Flossie Public Advisory Number 18

2025-07-03 16:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 597 WTPZ31 KNHC 031433 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 ...FLOSSIE WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER COOL WATER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 111.7W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 111.7 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a general west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next day or so, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical low later today and a remnant low by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven


Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 18

2025-07-03 16:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 167 WTPZ21 KNHC 031433 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 111.7W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 111.7W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.6N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.6N 116.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.3N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 111.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN


Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2025-07-03 13:33:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

687 ABPZ20 KNHC 031132TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin, a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. South of Southern Mexico:An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gradual development of this system is expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. $$Forecaster Cangialosi


Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2025-07-03 13:31:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

018 ABNT20 KNHC 031131TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Near the Southeastern U.S.:An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along a weakening frontal boundary near Florida or the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States by Saturday. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts northward or northeastward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.$$Forecaster Beven


Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics

2025-07-03 11:22:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 08:35:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 09:22:06 GMT


Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics

2025-07-03 10:35:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 08:35:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 08:35:25 GMT


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Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 17

2025-07-03 10:34:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030834 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 Flossie continues to rapidly weaken, with a recent ASCAT pass indicating instrument derived winds of only 40 to 45 kt north of the center. The cyclones structure has further degraded, with deep convection absent and the low-level circulation now fully exposed. Both subjective and objective satellite current intensity estimates reflect this weakening trend, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt based on a blend of these data. The initial motion is 300/8 kt. Flossie continues to move along the southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge situated over northern Mexico. This general motion is expected to persist for the next couple of days. The updated forecast track is nearly unchanged from the previous advisory and remains close to the consensus guidance. Continued weakening is anticipated as the system moves over cooler waters and remains embedded in a dry and stable environment. With no deep convection, Flossie is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today, with dissipation expected by 60 hours, if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 20.1N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.9N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z 23.2N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 24.0N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Jelsema/Papin


Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

Tropical Storm Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2025-07-03 10:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 030833 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA/PAPIN


Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

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