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Tropical Storm Fernand Forecast Advisory Number 14
2025-08-27 04:34:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 27 2025 000 WTNT21 KNHC 270234 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025 0300 UTC WED AUG 27 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 52.0W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 90SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 52.0W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 52.7W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 39.3N 49.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 41.1N 46.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 42.9N 41.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 44.9N 35.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 52.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-08-27 01:12:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000ABNT20 KNHC 262312TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fernand, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-08-27 01:12:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000ABPZ20 KNHC 262312TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Juliette, located in the east Pacific basin several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:An area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the central Pacific basin.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico is associated with a tropical wave. Some slow development of this system is possible late this week and into the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central part of the eastern Pacific basin.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.South of Southern Mexico:An area of low pressure could form this weekend offshore of the coast of Central America and southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.$$Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Juliette Graphics
2025-08-26 23:26:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 20:37:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 21:26:15 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Fernand Graphics
2025-08-26 23:21:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 20:34:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 21:21:17 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 9
2025-08-26 22:34:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 262034 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 The center of Juliette appears to be near the northern edge of the central convective area, as there could still be some moderate northeasterly shear affecting the cyclone. Overall, the structure appears similar to, but slightly degraded compared to, the system's appearance on satellite imagery 6 h ago. The latest objective intensity estimates have been running in the 45-50 kt range, and the latest Final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB are both 3.5 (55 kt). The initial intensity is set at 55 kt for this advisory. Although vertical wind shear over Juliette is forecast to be very low for the next 24-30 h, the cyclone is expected to cross the 26C sea-surface temperature (SST) isotherm by hour 12, and water temperatures will continue to decrease with time along its path. Juliette will also be moving into a progressively drier and more stable airmass. Little change in strength is expected over the next 12-24 h, but steady weakening is expected when the cyclone moves over colder water and through drier air. The NHC intensity forecast is near the higher end of the guidance through 24 h, but lies in the middle of the guidance envelope thereafter. Beyond 36 h, southwesterly wind shear will increase as Juliette moves closer to an upper-level trough located well to its northwest. The increasing shear, along with the cold SSTs and dry air, should cause the cyclone to lose its convection and become post-tropical in about 2 days. Global models show the remnant low gradually spinning down and dissipating in 3 to 4 days. Juliette's initial motion is estimated to be northwest, or 325/9 kt. This general motion should continue over the next couple of days as Juliette moves in between two strong mid-level ridges, one located over northwestern Mexico and the other located well to the west-northwest of the cyclone. Juliette should slow down some on Wednesday as the steering currents weaken on the west side of the mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico. There has been a large northeastward shift to the guidance this cycle. The latest official forecast is in best agreement with the Google DeepMind ensemble mean, but not nearly as far to the right as some of the other consensus models like the TCVE and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 19.9N 117.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 21.0N 118.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 22.7N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 24.2N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 25.2N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0600Z 26.0N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1800Z 26.5N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Fernand Forecast Discussion Number 13
2025-08-26 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 26 2025 458 WTNT41 KNHC 262033 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025 500 PM AST Tue Aug 26 2025 As mentioned this morning, there was a possibility of deep convection redeveloping near Fernand's center, and that indeed has happened. Fernand has therefore maintained tropical cyclone status, and based on earlier ASCAT data which showed wind of 30-35 kt, the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt. The initial motion is northeastward, or 045/10 kt. An acceleration toward the east-northeast is expected during the next couple of days as Fernand becomes more fully embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow. In the short term, Fernand will be moving over a relative warm eddy of the Gulf Stream, while also remaining in an environment of low shear. Based on the latest GFS and ECMWF fields, as well as the HCCA guidance, some slight strengthening appears possible during the next day or so. This is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast. Post-tropical transition is predicted by 36 hours, if not sooner, when the cyclone should finally struggle to maintain convection over colder waters. The post-tropical cyclone may be able to maintain its integrity through 48 hours, so an additional forecast point was added to the official forecast at that time. The GFS and ECWMF are in very good agreement that the low should open up into a trough by 60 hours (Thursday night). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 38.1N 53.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 38.8N 51.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 40.1N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 41.8N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 28/1800Z 43.7N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Juliette (EP5/EP102025)
2025-08-26 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIETTE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 the center of Juliette was located near 19.9, -117.2 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Juliette Public Advisory Number 9
2025-08-26 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 457 WTPZ35 KNHC 262033 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 ...JULIETTE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 117.2W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 117.2 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower motion toward the north-northwest is expected by late Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through today. A weakening trend is forecast to begin by early Wednesday, and Juliette is expected to become a remnant low on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2025-08-26 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 508 FOPZ15 KNHC 262033 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 2100 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 4(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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