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Tropical Storm Fernand Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2025-08-26 22:32:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 238 FONT11 KNHC 262032 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FERNAND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025 2100 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Fernand Forecast Advisory Number 13
2025-08-26 22:32:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 293 WTNT21 KNHC 262032 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025 2100 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 53.4W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 53.4W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 54.0W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 38.8N 51.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 40.1N 48.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 41.8N 44.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 43.7N 37.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 53.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 9
2025-08-26 22:32:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 294 WTPZ25 KNHC 262032 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 2100 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 117.2W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 117.2W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 116.8W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.0N 118.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.7N 119.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.2N 120.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.2N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 26.0N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.5N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 117.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-08-26 19:26:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000ABPZ20 KNHC 261726TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Juliette, located in the east Pacific basin several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:An area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the central Pacific basin.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico is associated with a tropical wave. Some slow development of this system is possible late this week and into the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central part of the eastern Pacific basin.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.South of Southern Mexico:An area of low pressure could form this weekend offshore of the coast of Central America and southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.$$Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-08-26 19:23:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
715 ABNT20 KNHC 261723TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fernand, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Juliette Graphics
2025-08-26 17:27:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 14:34:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 15:27:39 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Fernand Graphics
2025-08-26 17:22:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 14:39:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 15:22:23 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2025-08-26 16:40:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 261440 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 1500 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Fernand Forecast Discussion Number 12
2025-08-26 16:38:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 26 2025 000 WTNT41 KNHC 261438 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 26 2025 Fernand has not produced deep convection near its center since about 2 AM. Based on a blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, and a partial ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory. Fernand is moving over a cool eddy of about 25 degrees Celsius in the Gulf Stream, which could explain its loss of convection. However, the storm is expected to move over a warm eddy later this afternoon and evening, and SHIPS suggests a short period of increased upper-level divergence as well. These conditions could allow redevelopment of deep convection, keeping Fernand going as a tropical cyclone for a bit longer. In fact, both the GFS and ECWMF show this redevelopment, along with an increase in Fernand's maximum winds by tomorrow morning. While confidence in this scenario is not particularly high, the NHC forecast has been modified to show the potential of slight restrengthening over the next 24 hours, with post-tropical transition not occurring until 36 hours. Most of the global models show the circulation opening up into a trough by 48 hours, and that is when dissipation is shown in the official forecast. The initial motion is northeastward, or 040/11 kt. A continued northeastward motion is expected until Fernand dissipates, and no significant changes were made to the official track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 37.6N 54.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 38.9N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 40.4N 50.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 41.9N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Fernand Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2025-08-26 16:37:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 000 FONT11 KNHC 261437 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FERNAND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025 1500 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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