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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 8
2025-08-26 16:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 820 WTPZ25 KNHC 261432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 1500 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.5W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.5W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N 117.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.6N 119.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.9N 120.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.0N 121.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.8N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.6N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-08-26 13:16:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
079 ABNT20 KNHC 261116TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fernand, located over the central Atlantic.Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-08-26 13:15:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000ABPZ20 KNHC 261115TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Juliette, located in the east Pacific basin several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week, while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the central Pacific basin.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is associated with a tropical wave. Some slow development of this system is possible late this week and into the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central part of the eastern Pacific basin.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.South of Southern Mexico:An area of low pressure could form this weekend offshore of the coast of Central America and southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.$$Forecaster Roberts
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Juliette Graphics
2025-08-26 11:27:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 08:37:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 09:27:11 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Fernand Graphics
2025-08-26 11:22:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 08:33:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 09:22:04 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Juliette Graphics
2025-08-26 10:37:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 08:37:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 08:37:18 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 7
2025-08-26 10:36:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260836 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Juliette's satellite appearance has remained fairly steady overnight with curved banding mainly to the south of the center. Recent microwave imagery shows that Juliette is still trying to develop a small inner core, which has not become better established since the previous advisory. Unfortunately, scatterometer missed tonight given the small size of the system it fell within the data gap. There is a bit of a range from subjective and objective intensity estimates this cycle between 44 to 65 kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is held at 55 kt. The system is moving west-northwestward at an estimated motion of 290/ 11 kt. The storm is being steered along the southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge located to the north. A gradual turn to the northwest then north-northwest is anticipated as a weakness in the ridge develops over the next couple of days. The NHC forecast track was nudged slightly to the right in the short term between the consensus aids on the right with Google DeepMind and EMXI on the left. Juliette should remain within a favorable environment, with warm sea surface temperatures and light to moderate wind shear for the next 18-24 h , which will allow for some strengthening. However, by early Wednesday the system will be crossing into cooler sea surface temperatures, and into a drier airmass. Latest SHIPS model guidance depicts wind shear also increases in about 48 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast lies near the consensus aids, and shows some strengthening possible today, although since the inner core has not established, the peak intensity is now just below hurricane strength. A gradual weakening trend is then forecast between 24-36 h, followed by a faster rate of weakening beyond 36 h. Juliette is forecast to become a remnant low by 60 h, before opening into a trough and dissipating by day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.3N 116.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 19.3N 117.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 20.8N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 22.4N 120.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 23.6N 121.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 24.6N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z 25.3N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Juliette (EP5/EP102025)
2025-08-26 10:34:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIETTE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 the center of Juliette was located near 18.3, -116.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Fernand Graphics
2025-08-26 10:34:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 08:33:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2025 08:33:39 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Fernand Forecast Discussion Number 11
2025-08-26 10:32:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Aug 26 2025 749 WTNT41 KNHC 260832 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025 500 AM AST Tue Aug 26 2025 Fernand continues to be a sheared cyclone this morning. Satellite images show the low-level center exposed to the north of an area of dissipating convection with warming cloud tops. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are between 30 to 44 kt. Given the satellite trends, the intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. The storm is moving northeastward or 040/12 kt. A slightly faster northeastward motion is expected later today within the flow between a subtropical high to its east and an approaching trough to the west. The NHC track forecast was shifted slightly to the right, and lies between the Google Deep Mind and HCCA corrected consensus. Fernand is expected to continue weakening, as satellite water vapor imagery depicts the system is moving into a drier environment and SHIPS mid-level RH values remain below 50 percent. The storm is also moving over cooler sea surface temperatures, and into higher wind shear along the forecast track. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous, which shows gradual weakening as the system spins down, and Fernand will likely become post-tropical cyclone tonight or early Wednesday. The cyclone is expected to open into a trough by 48 h and dissipate. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 37.0N 55.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 38.3N 53.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 39.9N 50.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 27/1800Z 41.5N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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