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Tropical Storm Fernand Forecast Discussion Number 10
2025-08-26 04:33:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 25 2025 000 WTNT41 KNHC 260233 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 25 2025 Fernand has lost organization over the past several hours. The center is completely exposed, and convection is confined to a small area south of the center due to northerly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity is lowered a little to 45 kt, which lies near the high end of the latest satellite estimates. This intensity value is in good agreement with a recent partial ASCAT pass that showed 35 to 40 kt winds on the eastern side of the system. Continued weakening is expected due to sharply cooler waters, dry air, and moderate to strong shear. Fernand will likely become post-tropical in about 24 hours, if not sooner, and is expected to open into a trough in a couple of days. The storm is moving northeastward at 11 kt. A slightly faster northeastward motion in the flow between a subtropical high to its east and a large trough to the west is expected until Fernand dissipates. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies near the Google Deep Mind and HCCA models, which have been performing well for this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 36.1N 56.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 37.5N 54.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 39.6N 52.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 27/1200Z 41.8N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Fernand Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2025-08-26 04:33:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 000 FONT11 KNHC 260233 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FERNAND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025 0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Fernand (AT1/AL062025)
2025-08-26 04:32:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FERNAND BEGINS TO WEAKEN... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Aug 25 the center of Fernand was located near 36.1, -56.3 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Fernand Public Advisory Number 10
2025-08-26 04:32:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 25 2025 155 WTNT31 KNHC 260232 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 25 2025 ...FERNAND BEGINS TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.1N 56.3W ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 56.3 West. Fernand is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slightly faster northeast motion is anticipated over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is likely, and Fernand could become a post-tropical cyclone before dissipating on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Fernand Forecast Advisory Number 10
2025-08-26 04:32:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 156 WTNT21 KNHC 260232 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025 0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 56.3W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 56.3W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 56.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 37.5N 54.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 39.6N 52.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 41.8N 49.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 56.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 6
2025-08-26 04:32:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260232 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Juliette continues to strengthen. A microwave pass from a few hours ago suggested that the storm was developing an inner core, and recent infrared satellite images indicate that banding features are increasing south of the center. The Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS have all increased to 3.5/55 kt, and therefore, the initial wind speed is increased to that value. Juliette is expected to remain in favorable conditions to strengthen for about another day, and it seems likely that it will become a hurricane on Tuesday. However, the strengthening trend should end by Tuesday night when the storm is forecast to cross the 26 C SST isotherm and then move into an environment of drier air and stronger shear. Juliette is expected to become a remnant low in about 3 days when it is forecast to be over cool 22 C waters, and dissipate entirely this weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the HCCA and IVCN models. The storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. A gradual turn to the northwest and then the north-northwest with a notable reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days as Juliette moves toward a weakness in the ridge. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies on the western side of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with EMXI and the Google DeepMind models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 17.8N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 18.5N 116.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 19.8N 118.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 21.3N 119.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 22.8N 120.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 24.0N 121.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 24.9N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0000Z 25.6N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Juliette (EP5/EP102025)
2025-08-26 04:31:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIETTE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 the center of Juliette was located near 17.8, -115.5 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Juliette Public Advisory Number 6
2025-08-26 04:31:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 260231 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 2025 ...JULIETTE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 115.5W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 115.5 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Tuesday night, followed by a slower north-northwestward motion beginning late Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Juliette could become a hurricane on Tuesday. Weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. An automated Mexican Navy station on Clarion Island recently reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (58 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2025-08-26 04:31:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 260231 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 115W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 3 21(24) 28(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 6
2025-08-26 04:31:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 260231 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102025 0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 115.5W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 115.5W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 115.1W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.5N 116.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.8N 118.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.3N 119.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.8N 120.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.0N 121.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.9N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 25.6N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 115.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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