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Hurricane Erin Public Advisory Number 26a

2025-08-18 01:50:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM AST Sun Aug 17 2025 537 WTNT35 KNHC 172349 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 800 PM AST Sun Aug 17 2025 ...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ACROSS THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD AS ERIN BECOMES A VERY LARGE HURRICANE THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 68.8W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeast Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the central Bahamas, the North Carolina Outer Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 68.8 West. Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected tonight, followed by a gradual turn to the northwest and north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to pass to the east and northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight into Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some increase in size and strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Erin is forecast to remain a large and dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin continue to produce areas of heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches are expected across Puerto Rico through Monday. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast over the Turks and Caicos and the eastern Bahamas including San Salvador Island through Tuesday. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southeast Bahamas late tonight into Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands during the next couple of days. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of the week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Category: Transportation and Logistics

Hurricane Erin Graphics

2025-08-18 01:50:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Aug 2025 23:49:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Aug 2025 21:21:42 GMT

Category: Transportation and Logistics

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2025-08-18 01:10:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

576 ABNT20 KNHC 172309TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Erin, located less than 200 miles east-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands.Northwestern Atlantic:Shower activity remains limited in association with an elongated area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina. Upper-level winds are unfavorable, and development is no longer expected. The low should continue to weaken over the next 24 hours while drifting east-northeastward.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.Central Tropical Atlantic:A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the latter half of this week, and a tropical depression could form late this week or next weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, approaching the northeastern Caribbean Sea or southwestern Atlantic.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.$$Forecaster Hagen

Category: Transportation and Logistics

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2025-08-18 01:04:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

994 ABPZ20 KNHC 172302TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 PM PDT Sun Aug 17 2025For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Hagen

Category: Transportation and Logistics

Hurricane Erin Graphics

2025-08-17 23:21:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Aug 2025 20:39:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Aug 2025 21:21:42 GMT

Category: Transportation and Logistics

Hurricane Erin Forecast Advisory Number 26

2025-08-17 22:42:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 17 2025 000 WTNT25 KNHC 172042 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 2100 UTC SUN AUG 17 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 68.5W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 140SE 90SW 150NW. 4 M SEAS....300NE 240SE 135SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 68.5W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 68.0W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.8N 69.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 24.0N 71.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.4N 71.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 140SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 27.1N 72.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 150SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 29.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 31.2N 72.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...210NE 220SE 180SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 35.3N 69.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 200SW 200NW. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 40.3N 59.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...160NE 180SE 170SW 120NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 250SW 240NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 68.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 18/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Category: Transportation and Logistics

Hurricane Erin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26

2025-08-17 22:39:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 17 2025 906 FONT15 KNHC 172038 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 2100 UTC SUN AUG 17 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 1(22) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN SALVADOR 34 2 5( 7) 14(21) 4(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 3 12(15) 5(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MAYAGUANA 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 19 14(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) GRAND TURK 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Category: Transportation and Logistics

Summary for Hurricane Erin (AT5/AL052025)

2025-08-17 22:36:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ERIN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AGAIN WHILE GROWING IN SIZE... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 17 the center of Erin was located near 21.7, -68.5 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 946 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Category: Transportation and Logistics