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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-08-23 19:23:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000ABPZ20 KNHC 231723TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 23 2025For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:South of Southwestern Mexico:A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well off the coast of Mexico.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.$$Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-08-23 13:56:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000ABNT20 KNHC 231156TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Southwestern Atlantic (AL90):Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure has formed about 500 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, and the associated showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization. A tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight, with further intensification to a tropical storm likely on Sunday while the low moves northward over the southwestern Atlantic. An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system as watches could be still required later today. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.East of the Windward Islands (AL99):Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located about 850 miles east of the Windward Islands. Some development of this system could occur during the next few days while the system moves quickly westward at about 20 mph. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across portions of the Windward Islands as the system moves through on Sunday and Monday. By the middle of next week, conditions over the central Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.&&High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Servicecan be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php$$Forecaster Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-08-23 13:42:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
021 ABPZ20 KNHC 231141TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 AM PDT Sat Aug 23 2025For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:South of Southwestern Mexico:A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well off the coast of Mexico.* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.$$Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-08-23 07:10:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000ABNT20 KNHC 230510TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Southwestern Atlantic (AL90):Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in association with a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical storm is expected to form this weekend while it moves north-northwestward and then northward over the southwestern Atlantic. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system as watches or warnings could be required later today. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located more than one thousand miles east of the Windward Islands have become less organized over the past 24 hours, and the system is currently being affected by strong wind shear. No development is expected through tonight while the system traverses the area of strong wind shear. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable environment Sunday and Monday as it approaches the Windward Islands, and some slow development is possible during that time. By the middle of next week, conditions over the Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further development.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.&&High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Servicecan be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php$$Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-08-23 07:03:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000ABPZ20 KNHC 230503TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 22 2025For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:South of Southwestern Mexico:A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well off the coast of Mexico.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.$$Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-08-23 01:40:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000ABPZ20 KNHC 222340TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 PM PDT Fri Aug 22 2025For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:South of Southwestern Mexico:A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well off the coast of Mexico.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.$$Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-08-23 01:40:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000ABNT20 KNHC 222340TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.Southwestern Atlantic (AL90):Showers and thunderstorms have not become any better organized this evening in association with a trough of low pressure located a couple hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical storm is very likely to form this weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward over the southwestern Atlantic. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system as watches or warnings could be required on Saturday. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands remain disorganized. While there is still some chance that a short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or so, the system is expected to move through a less conducive environment on Saturday. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable environment late this weekend into early next week as it approaches the Windward Islands.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.&&High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Servicecan be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php$$Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin Graphics
2025-08-22 23:21:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2025 20:35:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2025 21:21:56 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin Forecast Discussion Number 46
2025-08-22 22:32:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 22 2025 849 WTNT45 KNHC 222032 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 500 PM AST Fri Aug 22 2025 Erin has now become a powerful extratropical low. While there is still deep convection near the center, scatterometer data clearly shows that Erin has become frontal. Thus, extratropical transition has been completed, and this is the last NHC advisory. The initial intensity remains 80 kt based on the multiple earlier scatterometer winds near 70 kt, with very large gale- and storm-force wind-radii noted. While the general track and intensity forecast is about the same as before, one specific marine hazard to highlight is the consistent development of a strong sting jet in the southern semicircle of Erin by Sunday, as well as a very large hurricane-force wind field. Model guidance now suggest that a maximum of 80-90 kt is possible, and the NHC intensity forecast is raised to 85 kt then. No other noteworthy changes were made to the previous forecast. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erin will continue to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags. 2. Some coastal flooding is expected at times of high tide along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts through tonight, making some roads impassable. Large waves along the coast could also cause significant beach erosion and overwash. 3. Gale-force wind gusts are possible along the coast of Nova Scotia today and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 40.0N 59.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 23/0600Z 41.5N 54.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 23/1800Z 44.0N 45.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 24/0600Z 48.0N 35.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/1800Z 52.0N 27.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/0600Z 55.0N 23.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/1800Z 58.0N 21.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/1800Z 59.0N 21.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 27/1800Z 57.0N 17.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 46
2025-08-22 22:31:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 22 2025 000 FONT15 KNHC 222031 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 2100 UTC FRI AUG 22 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 1 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SABLE ISLAND 34 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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