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Summary for Tropical Storm Rafael (AT3/AL182024)
2024-11-09 03:34:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAFAEL RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 9:00 PM CST Fri Nov 8 the center of Rafael was located near 24.8, -89.9 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Public Advisory Number 23
2024-11-09 03:34:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 792 WTNT33 KNHC 090234 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 ...RAFAEL RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 89.9W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 89.9 West. Rafael is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow west-northwestward motion is expected through Saturday. After that, Rafael is likely to move slowly south-southwestward toward the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional steady to rapid weakening is expected during the next few days. During the past few hours, NOAA buoy 42001 located north of the center reported sustained winds of 42 mph (68 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph (83 km/h). Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2024-11-09 03:34:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 772 FONT13 KNHC 090234 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-09 00:29:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 082329 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Rafael, located over the central Gulf of Mexico. Near Greater Antilles: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a trough of low pressure that extends from near Hispaniola northeastward over the southwestern Atlantic. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves westward to west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles, Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba through Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-09 00:26:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 082326 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM PST Fri Nov 8 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Rafael Graphics
2024-11-08 21:34:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 20:34:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 20:34:26 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2024-11-08 21:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 082032 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 1(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Rafael (AT3/AL182024)
2024-11-08 21:33:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAFAEL PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Fri Nov 8 the center of Rafael was located near 24.6, -89.7 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 22
2024-11-08 21:33:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 082032 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 ...RAFAEL PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 89.7W ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 89.7 West. Rafael is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slow west-northwestward motion is expected through tonight. After that, Rafael is likely to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 22
2024-11-08 21:33:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 082032 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 89.7W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 90SE 150SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 89.7W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 89.4W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.9N 90.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.2N 91.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.5N 91.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.6N 92.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.9N 92.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.8N 92.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 22.8N 92.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 21.6N 93.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 89.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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