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Subtropical Storm Beryl Graphics

2018-07-14 18:51:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Jul 2018 16:51:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Jul 2018 16:51:14 GMT

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Subtropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 16

2018-07-14 18:50:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 PM AST Sat Jul 14 2018 330 WTNT42 KNHC 141649 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Beryl Special Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 100 PM AST Sat Jul 14 2018 The remnants of Beryl have persisted for the past several days, moving through the Bahamas and into the Atlantic between the eastern United States and Bermuda. During the last day or so, the remnants have interacted with an upper-level trough, which has resulted in the redevelopment of a well-defined circulation and organized convection near the center. Recent scatterometer data shows 35 kt winds northeast of the center, so advisories are re-initiated on Beryl. While the strongest winds and convection are relatively close to the center, the upper-level trough is likely contributing baroclinic energy to the system, and thus the regenerated Beryl is being called a subtropical cyclone rather than a tropical cyclone. The initial motion is 035/10. Beryl is in relatively light southwesterly flow between the subtropical ridge and the mid-latitude westerlies, and this pattern should steer the cyclone generally northeastward for the next two to three days. Some increase in forward speed may occur after 36 h as a mid-latitude cyclone approaches from the west. The forecast track is a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. The forecast track takes Beryl over cold water north of the Gulf Stream in 24 h or less, and the guidance shows little additional intensification during that time. After that, the system should decay over cold water without any extratropical transition. The intensity forecast calls for the system to maintain a 35 kt intensity for 24 hr, followed by weakening and eventual dissipation just after 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1700Z 36.4N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 12H 15/0000Z 37.3N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 24H 15/1200Z 39.3N 63.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 36H 16/0000Z 41.2N 61.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 48H 16/1200Z 43.4N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 48.0N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Subtropical Storm Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2018-07-14 18:49:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1700 UTC SAT JUL 14 2018 804 FONT12 KNHC 141649 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 1700 UTC SAT JUL 14 2018 AT 1700Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Subtropical Storm Beryl Public Advisory Number 16

2018-07-14 18:49:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 PM AST Sat Jul 14 2018 803 WTNT32 KNHC 141649 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Beryl Special Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 100 PM AST Sat Jul 14 2018 ...REMNANTS OF BERYL RE-DEVELOP AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.4N 65.7W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF BERMUDA ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM AST (1700 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 36.4 North, longitude 65.7 West. The storm is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Sunday. After that, Beryl should weaken as it moves over colder water, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area by Monday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Summary for Subtropical Storm Beryl (AT2/AL022018)

2018-07-14 18:49:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...REMNANTS OF BERYL RE-DEVELOP AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM... As of 1:00 PM AST Sat Jul 14 the center of Beryl was located near 36.4, -65.7 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Subtropical Storm Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 16

2018-07-14 18:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1700 UTC SAT JUL 14 2018 538 WTNT22 KNHC 141648 TCMAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 1700 UTC SAT JUL 14 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 65.7W AT 14/1700Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 65.7W AT 14/1700Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 66.2W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 37.3N 64.9W...SUBTROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 39.3N 63.7W...SUBTROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 41.2N 61.6W...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 43.4N 58.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 48.0N 53.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.4N 65.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-07-14 18:15:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

929 ABNT20 KNHC 141615 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 PM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Outlook to again update the discussion on the remnants of Beryl Recent satellite wind data indicates that the low pressure area associated with the remnants of Beryl has a well-defined circulation and gale-force winds east of the center. Based on this and persistent convection near the center, a special advisory upgrading the system to a subtropical storm will be issued by 1 PM EDT... 1700 UTC. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-07-14 13:48:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

939 ABPZ20 KNHC 141147 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Jul 14 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A trough of low pressure located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Although the disturbance has changed little in organization since yesterday, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development in a couple of days while the system moves westward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-07-14 13:47:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

464 ABNT20 KNHC 141146 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Beryl, is located about 250 miles north-northwest of Bermuda. This system has become better organized during the past several hours, and it is producing winds of near gale force east of the center. Some additional development is possible today and tonight, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone could form before the system moves over cold water north of the Gulf Stream on Sunday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-07-14 07:01:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

327 ABPZ20 KNHC 140501 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Fri Jul 13 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A trough of low pressure located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This system has changed little in organization since earlier today, but environmental conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for development in a day or two as the disturbance moves westward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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