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Summary for Tropical Storm Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)

2017-08-19 04:31:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM KENNETH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 the center of Kenneth was located near 15.0, -119.1 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 3

2017-08-19 04:30:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 190230 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0300 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 119.1W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 119.1W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 118.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.4N 121.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.0N 124.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.8N 126.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.7N 128.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.6N 131.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.3N 133.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 25.2N 133.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 119.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-08-19 01:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 182341 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Harvey, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of disturbed weather located about 500 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands have become less organized since yesterday due to strong upper-level winds, and satellite data suggest that the surface circulation has become less defined. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development during the next couple of days while this system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph, and the chances for tropical cyclone formation appear to be decreasing. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, almost a thousand miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual development over the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 20 mph, but upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable by the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-08-19 01:24:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 182324 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, located about 760 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics

2017-08-18 22:43:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 20:43:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 21:25:37 GMT

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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Graphics

2017-08-18 22:42:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 20:42:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 21:33:18 GMT

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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2017-08-18 22:36:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 182036 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017 The tropical depression is slowly becoming more organized. Moderate upper-level northeasterly winds are inhibiting outflow in the northeast quadrant of the cyclone, but banding convection is present in all quadrants. A pair of ASCAT passes around 1700 and 1800 UTC confirmed that the depression has a well-defined center and showed maximum winds of just below 30 kt. The initial intensity is therefore held at 30 kt. The ASCAT data also indicated that the center of circulation is a little to the south of the previous estimated position, perhaps in part due to a reorganization of the center closer to the main mass of convection. Due to the relocation of the estimated center to the south, the official forecast has been shifted to the south and west throughout the forecast period. Otherwise, the reasoning behind the forecast has not changed, and the depression should continue to be steered generally westward to west-northwestward for the next 3 days by a mid-level ridge. A weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop around day 4 that should cause the cyclone to turn toward the northwest and slow down. The only change in the track guidance is a slight increase in forward speed through 36 h, and confidence is fairly high in the track forecast due to a tight clustering of the global models. No change has been made to the intensity forecast, which remains very close to the multi-model consensus. The light northeasterly shear currently affecting the cyclone is forecast to decrease over the next 12 to 24 h. Once that happens, the cyclone will be embedded within an environment consisting of low shear, warm SSTs, and sufficient moisture to support strengthening. After about 72 h, cooler waters and a more stable environment should cause steady weakening. By day 5, SSTs are expected to be be below 24 C, and the cyclone will likely be close to becoming a remnant low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 14.8N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.1N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 15.6N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 16.4N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 17.2N 128.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 18.9N 131.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 21.0N 133.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 23.9N 133.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2017-08-18 22:36:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 182036 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 37 17(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) 15N 120W 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X 4( 4) 38(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 9(19) 2(21) X(21) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 43(51) 4(55) 1(56) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) X(19) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) 4(40) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 6

2017-08-18 22:36:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 182036 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 Again, there has been little change in the structure of Harvey, with the low-level center near the eastern edge of a strong, but poorly organized, convective area. Earlier reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included winds suggesting an increased intensity. However, due to uncertainties in how representative these measurements were, no appreciable change in the central pressure, and no improvement in the structure, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. The initial motion is 275/18. A strong low- to mid-level ridge north of the cyclone should keep Harvey on this general motion for the next 3 days or so, with the system moving from the eastern to the western Caribbean Sea during this time. After 72 h, a west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected when Harvey passes near or over portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and eastern Mexico. The new forecast track is a little faster then the previous track, but there were only minor changes in the direction. It should be noted that there is considerable uncertainty about how far north Harvey might get over the Bay of Campeche, with several of the large-scale models not bringing the center back over the water on the latest runs. The current shear should persist for about the next 48 h, and thus the intensity forecast continues the trend of slow strengthening during this time. However, the GFS and ECMWF again forecast Harvey to degenerate to an open wave during this time, and the rest of the intensity guidance has trended toward a weaker cyclone. This lowers the confidence in intensification. After 48 h, conditions appear more favorable for strengthening, with the main uncertainty being how much land Harvey will encounter. The intensity forecast will again call for a peak intensity of 60 kt in 72 h, followed by weakening due to land interaction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 13.4N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 13.6N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 13.9N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 14.2N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 14.5N 76.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 15.5N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 17.5N 88.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Public Advisory Number 2

2017-08-18 22:36:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 182036 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 117.9W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen-E was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 117.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight. Additional strengthening is expected after that, and it could become a hurricane over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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