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Tropical Depression Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

2018-09-17 04:39:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 444 FONT15 KNHC 170239 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0300 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA


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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 18

2018-09-17 04:39:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 193 WTNT25 KNHC 170239 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0300 UTC MON SEP 17 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 30.3W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 30.3W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 31.1W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 33.7N 27.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.8N 26.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.7N 26.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 30.5N 27.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 28.9N 29.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 30.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA


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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-17 01:27:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

826 ABNT20 KNHC 162327 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Joyce, located a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores. The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Florence, located inland over northwestern South Carolina. A broad area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Isaac, is located about 100 miles east of Kingston, Jamaica. Although the low-level circulation has become better defined today, showers and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance remain disorganized. Only slow development will be possible during the next day or so due to proximity to dry air and land interaction with Jamaica. By Wednesday, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for re-development to occur. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds will be possible over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward to westward toward the northwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Florence are issued by the Weather Prediction Center under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov $$ Forecaster Stewart


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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-17 01:25:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

475 ABPZ20 KNHC 162325 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun Sep 16 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad and elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is associated with widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear conducive for tropical cyclone formation, the large size of the system suggests that any development should be slow to occur. This system will likely become a tropical depression later this week while it moves generally northwestward or northward at about 10 mph. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A small area of low pressure located about 650 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions. This system is expected to move slowly west- southwestward during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Landsea


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Tropical Depression Florence Public Advisory Number 70

2018-09-16 22:47:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

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Tropical Depression Joyce Graphics

2018-09-16 22:35:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 20:35:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 20:35:18 GMT

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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 17

2018-09-16 22:33:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 344 WTNT45 KNHC 162033 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 Joyce continues to hang on as a tropical depression. The cloud pattern consists of a swirl of low-level clouds with patches of deep convection that become sheared off in the northeast quadrant. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with an ASCAT pass from several hours ago that showed maximum winds in the 25-30 kt range. Even though Joyce is over relatively warm water, the current hostile atmospheric environment of 30-40 kt of west-southwesterly shear and nearby dry air should cause Joyce to gradually weaken during the next few days. Although remnant low status is not predicted to occur for 2-3 days, it is very possible that Joyce could degenerate into a trough or a remnant low well before then. The depression has turned to the east, with the latest initial motion estimate being 090/15. The weak and shallow system is expected to move in the low- to mid-level flow during the next few days. This should cause the cyclone to slow down and turn southeastward on Monday, followed by a southward and then southwestward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday as the system moves around a building ridge over the northeastern Atlantic. The track models are in fairly good agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 34.4N 32.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 34.2N 30.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 33.6N 28.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 32.4N 27.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 31.2N 27.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 29.4N 30.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Summary for Tropical Depression Joyce (AT5/AL102018)

2018-09-16 22:32:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOYCE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 16 the center of Joyce was located near 34.4, -32.6 with movement E at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Joyce Public Advisory Number 17

2018-09-16 22:32:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 001 WTNT35 KNHC 162032 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 ...JOYCE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.4N 32.6W ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 32.6 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. After that time, the cyclone should slow down and turn toward the southeast and then the southwest away from the Azores. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Joyce could degenerate into a trough or a remnant low within the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 17

2018-09-16 22:32:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 974 WTNT25 KNHC 162032 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 2100 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 32.6W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 32.6W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 33.4W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.2N 30.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.6N 28.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.4N 27.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 31.2N 27.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 29.4N 30.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 32.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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