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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-16 19:34:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

209 ABNT20 KNHC 161734 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on Helene that has become a Post-Tropical Cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Joyce, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Azores. The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Florence, located inland over South Carolina. A broad area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Isaac, is located about 125 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. This system continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea. Some slow development is possible during the next day or so as it moves west-northwestward toward the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Afterward, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive and re-development appears unlikely. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are forecast over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Florence are issued by the Weather Prediction Center under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov $$ Forecaster Brown

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-16 19:33:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

625 ABPZ20 KNHC 161733 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 16 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad and elongated area of low pressure is centered a few hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Although environmental conditions appear conducive for tropical cyclone formation, the large size of the system suggests that development should be slow to occur. This system will likely become a tropical depression later this week while it moves generally northwestward at about 10 mph. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A small area of low pressure located about 600 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms to the west of the center. Significant development of this system is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions. This system is expected to move slowly west-southwestward during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression Florence Public Advisory Number 69

2018-09-16 17:38:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

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Tropical Depression Florence Public Advisory Number 69

2018-09-16 17:11:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Graphics

2018-09-16 16:44:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 14:44:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 14:44:50 GMT

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Forecast Discussion Number 37

2018-09-16 16:43:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 413 WTNT43 KNHC 161443 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 Helene's cloud pattern has transformed into that of an extratropical cyclone, with a large area of cold cloud tops located well to the north and northwest of the center. An ASCAT pass that caught the eastern portion of the circulation revealed maximum winds of 40 to 45 kt, therefore the initial wind speed remains 45 kt for this advisory. The global models suggest that the system will strengthen slightly today due to baroclinic processes, and this is reflected in the official forecast. Weakening is anticipated by late Monday, and the system is forecast to be absorbed by a larger low pressure to the northwest of the United Kingdom by Tuesday morning. The cyclone is moving quickly northeastward or 055/25 kt. Now that the system is embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, a northeastward motion with some additional increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. The global models remain in good agreement on the track of the post-tropical low, and the new official forecast is an update of the previous advisory. This is the last NHC advisory on this system. Interests in Ireland and the United Kingdom should consult products from their local meteorological service for information about potential impacts from the post-tropical cyclone. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 43.8N 25.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 17/0000Z 45.8N 21.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/1200Z 49.0N 14.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 18/0000Z 52.8N 6.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Joyce Graphics

2018-09-16 16:43:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 14:43:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 14:43:13 GMT

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37

2018-09-16 16:42:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 434 FONT13 KNHC 161442 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene (AT3/AL082018)

2018-09-16 16:42:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HELENE NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 16 the center of Helene was located near 43.8, -25.7 with movement NE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Public Advisory Number 37

2018-09-16 16:42:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 464 WTNT33 KNHC 161442 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 ...HELENE NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.8N 25.7W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM N OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. Interests in Ireland and the United Kingdom should consult products from their local meteorological service for information about potential impacts from Post-Tropical Helene in those locations. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene was located near latitude 43.8 North, longitude 25.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the post-tropical cyclone will approach Ireland and the United Kingdom on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today. Some weakening is expected by Monday, and the system is forecast to be absorbed by another low pressure area by early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at www.metoffice.gov/uk. SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the Azores. These swells are likely to continue for another day or so and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at: http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin. Additional information can also be found in High Seas Forecast issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

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