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Hurricane Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

2017-10-15 22:41:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 152041 PWSAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 2100 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 13.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 27

2017-10-15 22:41:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 152041 TCMAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 2100 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET EIREANN...AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.6N 13.3W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 33 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 220SE 220SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 240SE 660SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.6N 13.3W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 14.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 49.2N 11.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 70SE 80SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 150SE 150SW 100NW. 34 KT...180NE 250SE 220SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 54.3N 7.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...140NE 150SE 150SW 140NW. 34 KT...230NE 300SE 300SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 58.5N 2.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 270SE 270SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.6N 13.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Hurricane Ophelia Public Advisory Number 27

2017-10-15 22:41:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 152041 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 ...OPHELIA STILL A HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.6N 13.3W ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM NE OF THE AZORES ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 44.6 North, longitude 13.3 West. Ophelia is moving toward the north-northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will cross over Ireland on Monday, however strong winds and rain will extend far from the center. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Ophelia is expected to be a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone when it nears the coast of Ireland on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday afternoon. Strong winds will then spread inland across the Ireland and parts of the UK into Monday night. Preparations to protect lives and property should be nearing completion. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100 mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm) or less. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Summary for Hurricane Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)

2017-10-15 22:41:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...OPHELIA STILL A HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Oct 15 the center of Ophelia was located near 44.6, -13.3 with movement NNE at 38 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-10-15 19:33:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 151733 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Ophelia, located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean more than 600 miles east-northeast of the Azores. A broad area of low pressure is moving toward the west-northwest and is now located about 150 miles north of Hispaniola. The low is producing numerous showers and a few squalls mainly to the east of the center. Since upper-level winds are not particularly favorable for tropical cyclone formation, further development of this system, if any, will be slow to occur. The low and its associated activity is forecast to move toward the northwest and north during the next two to three days. After that time, this system is expected to merge with a cold front. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-10-15 19:30:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 151730 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 15 2017 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has not become any better organized since yesterday. However, environmental conditions are still expected to be conducive for a tropical depression to form through tomorrow morning. After that time, cool waters and strong upper-level winds are likely to prevent further development while the system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Ophelia Graphics

2017-10-15 16:50:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Oct 2017 14:50:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Oct 2017 15:25:15 GMT

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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 26

2017-10-15 16:45:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 151445 TCDAT2 Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 After displaying a distinct eye overnight, recent satellite imagery indicate that the cloud pattern of Ophelia has begun to deteriorate and the eye is no longer apparent. The deep convection is also weakening fast and consequently, Dvorak numbers have begun to decrease while analysts are trying to lower them as much as the technique allows. The best estimate of the initial intensity is 80 kt. Given the cold waters of about 20 deg C, and the strong shear, Ophelia is forecast to gradually weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the north-northeast or 025 degrees at 33 kt, well embedded within the fast flow ahead of a large trough. This pattern is expected to persist, so no significant change in track is anticipated before dissipation. Guidance continues to be in remarkably good agreement and most of the models bring a weakened post-tropical Ophelia to the southern coast of Ireland Monday morning (AST or Miami time). Thereafter, the cyclone will continue over northern Great Britain until dissipation. Strong winds and rains associated with Post-Tropical Ophelia will arrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Residents in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for more information on local impacts. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 41.6N 16.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 46.0N 13.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 16/1200Z 51.5N 9.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/0000Z 57.0N 5.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1200Z 60.5N 1.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26

2017-10-15 16:43:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 151443 PWSAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 1500 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 16.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Hurricane Ophelia Public Advisory Number 26

2017-10-15 16:43:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 151443 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 ...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.6N 16.0W ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ENE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 41.6 North, longitude 16.0 West. Ophelia is moving toward the north-northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will approach Ireland tomorrow morning. However, strong winds and rains should begin earlier. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, but Ophelia should maintain hurricane force winds until it reaches Ireland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday afternoon and spread inland across the country into Monday night. Preparations to protect lives and property should be rushed to completion by this afternoon. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100 mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm) or less. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila

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