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Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Forecast Advisory Number 37

2018-09-16 16:41:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 946 WTNT23 KNHC 161441 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. INTERESTS IN IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM POST-TROPICAL HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF THE UK MET OFFICE AT HTTPS... //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/. LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF MET EIREANN AT HTTPS... //WWW.MET.IE/. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 200SE 160SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 330SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 27.1W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.8N 21.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 210SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 49.0N 14.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 210SE 210SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 52.8N 6.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 160SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.8N 25.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW, AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 16

2018-09-16 16:41:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 947 WTNT45 KNHC 161441 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 Joyce is barely a tropical cyclone at the moment. The cloud pattern consists of a low-level swirl with a small patch of deep convection located about 80 n mi northeast of the center and another patch of weakening convection well removed from the center in the northeast quadrant. Visible satellite images and a partial ASCAT pass indicate that the circulation of the cyclone has also become increasingly elongated from northeast to southwest. Based on the system's appearance and the satellite intensity estimates, the initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt, making Joyce a tropical depression. The depression is moving east-northeastward at 16 kt within the mid-latitude westerlies, and this motion should continue through tonight. After that time, the shallow cyclone is expected to slow down and turn southeastward and then southwestward as it is moves in the flow on the east side of a building low- to mid-level ridge. The track models are in fairly good agreement, and little overall change was made to the previous NHC forecast. Joyce is currently in a quite hostile environment of 30-40 kt of west-southwesterly shear. Even though SSTs are relatively warm, the ongoing strong shear and nearby dry air should continue to cause the cyclone to gradually weaken. Although the NHC forecast shows Joyce hanging on as a tropical depression for a couple of more days, it is very possible that the system could degenerate into a trough or a remnant low at any time during that period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 34.7N 34.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 34.9N 31.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 34.5N 28.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 33.6N 27.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 32.6N 26.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 30.4N 29.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Summary for Tropical Depression Joyce (AT5/AL102018)

2018-09-16 16:41:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOYCE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 16 the center of Joyce was located near 34.7, -34.3 with movement ENE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Joyce Public Advisory Number 16

2018-09-16 16:41:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 275 WTNT35 KNHC 161441 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 ...JOYCE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.7N 34.3W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 34.3 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. After that time, the cyclone should slow down and turn toward the southeast and then the southwest away from the Azores. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Joyce could degenerate into a trough or a remnant low within the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

Tropical Depression Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2018-09-16 16:41:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 308 FONT15 KNHC 161441 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 16

2018-09-16 16:40:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 314 WTNT25 KNHC 161440 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 34.3W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 34.3W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 35.2W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 34.9N 31.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.5N 28.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.6N 27.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 32.6N 26.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.4N 29.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 34.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-16 13:24:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

893 ABPZ20 KNHC 161124 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Sep 16 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A large area of disturbed weather centered several hundred miles southwest of Mexico is associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while it moves generally northwestward at about 10 mph. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-16 13:24:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

892 ABNT20 KNHC 161124 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Florence, located inland over central South Carolina, on Tropical Storm Helene, located a few hundred miles north of the central Azores, and on Tropical Storm Joyce, located about 600 miles west-southwest of the Azores. A broad area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Isaac, is located a couple of hundred miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. This system is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Caribbean Sea. Some slow development is possible during the next day or so as it moves west-northwestward toward the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Afterward, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive and re-development appears unlikely. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are forecast over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Joyce Graphics

2018-09-16 11:04:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 09:04:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 09:04:45 GMT

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Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

Tropical Depression Florence Graphics

2018-09-16 10:55:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 08:55:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 09:22:11 GMT

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Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

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