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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-08-18 19:42:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 181742 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly developed Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, located about 700 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Internet of Things Solutions for Railways

2017-08-18 17:13:00| Railway Technology

While railway technology has evolved slowly over the last 200 years, the next few years could bring greater transformation to the railways, and at a greater pace than we have seen in the past as railway operators begin to adopt internet of things tec

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Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics

2017-08-18 16:56:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 14:56:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 15:25:47 GMT

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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 5

2017-08-18 16:50:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 181450 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 The structure of Harvey has changed little during the past several hours, and overall the storm is poorly organized. The low-level center is near the eastern edge of the convective mass due to the affects of 15 kt of vertical wind shear. In addition, surface observations and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data suggest that the 850-mb center is located west or southwest of the surface center. Based on the aircraft and surface data, the central pressure is near 1005 mb and the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The initial motion is a quick 270/18. A strong low- to mid-level ridge north of the cyclone should keep Harvey on this general motion for the next 3-4 days, with the system moving from the eastern to the western Caribbean Sea during this time. Late in the forecast period, a more northerly motion is expected when Harvey passes near or over portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and eastern Mexico. The new forecast track remains in the center of the guidance, and only minor changes were made to the previous track. The current shear should persist for the next 48 h or so, and thus the intensity forecast continues the trend of slow strengthening during this time. After that, conditions appear favorable for strengthening, with the main uncertainty being how much land Harvey will encounter. The ECMWF keeps the cyclone a little north of Nicaragua and Honduras and allows more room for development, while the GFS forecasts landfall in northeastern Nicaragua and thus has a weaker intensity. The new NHC forecast is close to the previous one in showing a peak intensity below hurricane strength, but the confidence in this portion of the forecast is low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 13.1N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 13.3N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 13.6N 67.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 14.0N 71.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 14.3N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 15.0N 82.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 16.5N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 18.5N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2017-08-18 16:49:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 181449 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 1500 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 9(26) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 3(36) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 15(28) X(28) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CURACAO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AVES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT LUCIA 34 59 X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) SAINT VINCENT 34 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Category: Transportation and Logistics
 

Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 5

2017-08-18 16:49:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 181449 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 1500 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 61.3W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 61.3W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 60.3W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.3N 63.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.6N 67.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.0N 71.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.3N 75.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.0N 82.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N 87.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 18.5N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 61.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 5

2017-08-18 16:49:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 181449 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 ...HARVEY MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 61.3W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF ST. VINCENT ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSW OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica Interests elsewhere in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of Harvey. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 61.3 West. Harvey is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea today and move into the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Fort-de-France, Martinique, recently reported a wind gust of 44 mph (70 km/h), while Hewanorra International Airport on St. Lucia recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area at this time. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area today. RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts across parts of the Leeward and Windward Islands from Guadeloupe southward to Grenada. These additional rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)

2017-08-18 16:49:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HARVEY MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 18 the center of Harvey was located near 13.1, -61.3 with movement W at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Graphics

2017-08-18 16:47:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 14:47:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 15:34:12 GMT

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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2017-08-18 16:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 181441 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017 Deep convection associated with the disturbance located over the open eastern Pacific Ocean has become better organized early this morning, and a primary convective band now wraps around the western half of the circulation. Shortwave-IR and first-light visible imagery suggest that a complex, but closed surface circulation exists. NHC is therefore initiating advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in agreement with the max winds measured in an earlier ASCAT pass and the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB. Light easterly vertical wind shear has thus far limited convection to the western half of the circulation, but the GFS and ECMWF agree that the shear will lessen as the system moves farther west. Overall, the environment appears conducive for intensification for the next 3 days or so, and the NHC forecast indicates that the cyclone will become a hurricane by the end of this weekend. After that time, the cyclone will begin to weaken over much cooler waters. The NHC forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus, IVCN. Since the center has only recently formed, the initial motion estimate is a fairly uncertain 285/13 kt. There is fairly good agreement among the global models that the tropical cyclone will move generally westward to west-northwestward for the next 72 h along the southern boundary of a mid-level ridge that extends westward well into the eastern Pacific basin. A weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop in about 3 days that should cause the cyclone to slow and turn more toward the northwest and eventually toward the north-northwest. The official forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 14.8N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 15.4N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 15.9N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 16.6N 123.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 17.3N 126.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 19.1N 130.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 21.4N 132.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 23.6N 133.3W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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