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Tropical Depression Nineteen Graphics
2024-11-14 12:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:49:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 09:22:46 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Nineteen Public Advisory Number 3A
2024-11-14 12:48:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 141148 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 700 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 82.2W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 82.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This motion should continue through today, taking the system across the western Caribbean Sea. The depression is expected to stall and meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening, if it remains over water. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Depression Nineteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Nineteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area beginning later today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-14 12:48:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 7:00 AM EST Thu Nov 14 the center of Nineteen was located near 15.9, -82.2 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-14 12:30:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 141129 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently formed Tropical Depression Nineteen, located over the western Caribbean Sea. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the next 7 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Nineteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2024-11-14 09:51:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024 729 FONT14 KNHC 140848 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 6(14) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 10(16) 9(25) 6(31) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 5(20) 3(23) GUANAJA 34 X 6( 6) 25(31) 14(45) 21(66) 3(69) 1(70) GUANAJA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 10(22) 2(24) 1(25) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) S SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) TEGUCIGALPA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) P SAN JOSE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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