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Tropical Depression Nineteen Graphics
2024-11-14 09:50:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 08:50:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 08:50:04 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-14 09:47:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMES TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 4:00 AM EST Thu Nov 14 the center of Nineteen was located near 15.9, -81.7 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Advisory Number 3
2024-11-14 09:46:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 140846 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0900 UTC THU NOV 14 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 81.7W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 81.7W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 81.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.9N 83.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.9N 85.3W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.9N 85.3W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.9N 85.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 17.1N 87.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.4N 89.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 81.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-14 06:45:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 140545 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen, located over the western Caribbean Sea. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the next 7 days. && Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Public Advisory Number 2A
2024-11-14 06:43:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 140543 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 100 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 81.2W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, and in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 81.2 West. The system is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward motion should continue for another day or so, taking the system across the western Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to stall and meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening, if it remains over water. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area beginning late today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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