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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-08-06 01:26:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 052326 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea are showing signs of organization. Additional development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea before it reaches the Yucatan peninsula late Monday or Tuesday. Even if formation does not occur before the system reaches the Yucatan peninsula, a tropical depression or tropical storm could form over the Bay of Campeche during the middle part of next week. Development would likely not occur if the system moves inland over Central America and southeastern Mexico and does not re-emerge over water. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary. Interests along the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become a little better organized during the past 24 hours. Some additional slow development is possible during the next two to three days before the system encounters less favorable environmental conditions during the middle part of next week. This system is expected to move generally west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven

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