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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-08-16 19:45:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 161745 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Gert, located a few hundred miles north of Bermuda. A low pressure system located about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become a little better defined since yesterday, but most of the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is displaced to the west of the center of circulation. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next day or so while the low moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Thursday, if necessary, and interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of the disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A second area of low pressure is located about 800 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, and its associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation when the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this wave while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg

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