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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-08-17 01:37:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 162337 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Gert, located a few hundred miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have become a little more concentrated this afternoon. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next day or so while the low moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday night and Friday, and interests there and elsewhere in the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Thursday, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A second area of low pressure is located about 950 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, and its associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation when the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A tropical wave located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development over the weekend while the system moves westward to west- northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown

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