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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-08-17 07:26:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 170526 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Gert, located several hundred miles southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a low pressure system located about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development, and this system has the potential to become a tropical depression while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and into the Caribbean Sea on Friday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and Friday, and interests there and elsewhere in the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A second area of low pressure located about midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation when the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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