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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2017-08-17 13:47:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 171147 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Gert, located several hundred miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Morning satellite imagery shows that shower activity associated with a low pressure system centered about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become better organized overnight, and buoy data indicates that the circulation is becoming better defined. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form later today or tonight as the system moves westward at about 15 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday, and interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Shower activity associated with a second area of low pressure located about midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles has also become a little better organized during the past 24 hours. Continued gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation when the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
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