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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-08-20 13:39:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 201138 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association with the remnants of Harvey. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it could become a tropical cyclone once again as it moves west-northwestward across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of Puerto Rico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development of this system during the next couple of days, but they could become slightly more conducive for development by midweek when the system is near the northwestern Bahamas or Florida. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located about 1000 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands is associated with a trough of low pressure. This system is currently embedded in a dry air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too strong to support development in a day or so. Therefore, tropical cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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