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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2017-08-20 19:34:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 201734 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association with the remnants of Harvey, but it is still unclear if the system has a closed circulation. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it could become a tropical cyclone once again while it moves west-northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days, and into the Bay of Campeche by midweek. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently enroute and should provide a better assessment of the structure of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent Satellite data indicate that a trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of the Dominican Republic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with some strong winds on its northeast side. Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development of this system during the next day or two, but they could become slightly more conducive for development by midweek when the system is near the northwestern Bahamas or Florida. This system is expected to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located about 900 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands is associated with a trough of low pressure. This system is currently embedded in a dry air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too strong to support development in a day or so. Therefore, tropical cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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