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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-08-21 13:33:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 211133 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A trough of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Harvey, continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Some development of this system is still possible before it reaches the coast of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The disturbance is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche early Wednesday, where environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for redevelopment. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to spread westward across northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days. The Air Force reconnaissance aircraft mission scheduled for today has been canceled. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A trough of low pressure located near the southeastern and central Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development of this system during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the Bahamas. Conditions could become a little more conducive for development later in the week when the system is near Florida or the adjacent waters. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A large area of showers and thunderstorms located about 800 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is associated with a surface trough that is interacting with a large upper-level low over the central Atlantic. Upper-level winds are not conducive for development of this system while it moves northwestward over the central Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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