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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2017-08-22 07:34:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 220534 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A large area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with the remnants of Harvey. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the system has not become better organized and tropical cyclone development is not expected before the system moves inland over the Yucatan peninsula this morning. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development when the system moves over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early Wednesday, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or Thursday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread westward across Belize and the Yucatan peninsula during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad trough of low pressure near the northwestern Bahamas remains limited. Any development of this system during the next few days should be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward, and then turns northwestward or northward near Florida and the adjacent waters. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development by the weekend when the system begins to move northeastward over the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
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