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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2017-08-23 01:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 222351 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Harvey is moving off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form on Wednesday or Thursday while the low moves northwestward at about 10 mph across the western Gulf of Mexico, possibly reaching the northwestern Gulf coast on Friday. Regardless of development, this system is likely to slow down once it reaches the coast, increasing the threat of a prolonged period of heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of Texas, southwestern Louisiana, and northeastern Mexico into early next week. This system could also produce storm surge and tropical storm or hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas coast later this week, and interests from northeastern Mexico to southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor its progress. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office for more information on this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms stretching across the Bahamas, Florida, and the adjacent waters is associated with a trough of low pressure. Any development of this system during the next few days should be slow to occur while it drifts northward over Florida and the adjacent waters. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for tropical or subtropical development by the weekend when the system begins to move northeastward over the western Atlantic. Regardless of development, very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions of the Florida peninsula during the next few days. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office for more information on this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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