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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-21 22:16:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
949 ABNT20 KNHC 212016 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 420 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook to update probabilities on the disturbance east of the Windward Islands. A low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is located about 600 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although the showers and thunderstorms have decreased this afternoon, this system is still showing signs of organization. The environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the low latitudes of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low pressure system located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands has become better organized over the past few hours, and a tropical depression could form later tonight or Saturday. Strong upper-level winds and dry air are likely to prevent additional development of this system by late this weekend while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A broad area of low pressure located about 100 miles southeast of Bermuda is producing minimal shower activity. Development of this system is not expected during the next couple of days due to dry air and strong upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could become more conducive for slow development when the system moves over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean during the early and middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop tonight or on Saturday over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean midway between Bermuda and the Azores. Conditions are expected to be conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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