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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-22 19:32:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
823 ABNT20 KNHC 221732 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven, located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands, and on newly formed Tropical Storm Kirk, located well south of the Cabo Verde Islands. A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south of Bermuda is now producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit development for the next day or so, but conditions could become more conducive for some development of this system by early next week while it moves westward and west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. By the middle of next week, upper-level winds are likely to increase again, which would limit additional development as the system turns northward and moves closer to the southeastern coast of the United States. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A frontal non-tropical low pressure system is located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores. Conditions are expected to become conducive for this low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next day or so, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form by early next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. Public Advisories on Kirk are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Kirk are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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