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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-23 07:43:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
686 ABNT20 KNHC 230542 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven, located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Kirk, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. A broad area of low pressure located about 300 miles south-southwest of Bermuda continues to produce limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Although strong upper-level winds currently affecting the system are expected to diminish later today and could allow for some development during the next couple of days, the low will continue to be embedded in a very dry environment while it moves westward and west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. By Tuesday or Wednesday, upper-level winds are forecast to strengthen again, likely limiting additional development as the system turns northward and moves by the southeastern coast of the United States. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. The evolution of a complex weather system over the central Atlantic Ocean could lead to two separate episodes of subtropical or tropical development during the upcoming week. First, a non-tropical low pressure system currently located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores is producing gale-force winds with some associated showers and thunderstorms. Conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next day or so while meandering over the central Atlantic Ocean, and the low could become a subtropical or tropical cyclone before it is overtaken and absorbed by a cold front late Tuesday or Wednesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A second non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along the central Atlantic cold front by Wednesday several hundred miles west of the Azores. Conditions appear conducive for this system to also acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics by the latter part of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Kirk are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Kirk are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Berg
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