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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-25 01:30:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

555 ABNT20 KNHC 242330 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical Storm Leslie, located about 1200 miles west of the Azores. A broad area of low pressure located about 400 miles south- southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become slightly more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form tonight or Tuesday while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, upper-level winds are expected to increase and limit the chances for additional development while the system moves northward near the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this system will likely enhance rainfall across portions of northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina Tuesday and Tuesday night. In addition, dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast on Tuesday. For more information, please see products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A tropical wave, the remnants of Kirk, is located about 1300 miles east of the Windward Islands. This system continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms, along with winds to gale force over the northern portion of the wave, while it moves quickly westward at around 25 mph. This system could redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the next few days before it encounters highly unfavorable upper-level winds while it approaches the Caribbean Sea. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Subtropical Storm Leslie is expected to become post-tropical Tuesday night or Wednesday after it merges with a cold front over the central Atlantic. After that time, Leslie could reacquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics by the end of the week as it meanders over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Brennan

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