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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-25 07:15:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

136 ABNT20 KNHC 250515 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Subtropical Depression Leslie, located about 1200 miles west of the Azores. A broad area of low pressure located about 300 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce showers and thunderstorms on its north side. Satellite data indicate that the circulation of the low is elongated and not well organized. However, this system could still become a tropical depression later today while it moves northwestward. By tonight and Wednesday, additional development appears unlikely, due to strong upper-level winds, while the system moves northward and north-northeastward near the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this system will likely enhance rainfall across portions of northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina later today and tonight. In addition, dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast today. For more information, please see products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. The remnants of Kirk are located about 1100 miles east of the Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at around 25 mph. This system continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms, along with winds to gale force on its north side. However, satellite data indicate that the system still lacks a closed circulation. This disturbance could redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days before it moves into an area of highly unfavorable upper-level winds while it approaches the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance as gusty winds and locally heavy rains are likely even if the system does not redevelop into a tropical cyclone. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Subtropical Depression Leslie is forecast to become post-tropical tonight after it merges with a cold front over the central Atlantic. After that time, Leslie could reacquire subtropical or tropical characteristics by the end of the week as it meanders over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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