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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-08-24 07:45:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 240545 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal, located several hundred miles west of the Azores. A broad area of low pressure located inland over South Florida continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend eastward over the northwestern Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Significant development of the low is unlikely today while it drifts northward over the southern Florida peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive to support gradual development once the low moves off the east-central coast of Florida over the western Atlantic by Sunday, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system later today could be postponed if the center of the low remains inland over Florida. Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low pressure located about 1050 miles east of the Windward Islands are showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Conditions appear less favorable for development when the low reaches the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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