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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-08-24 17:18:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 241518 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1120 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the low pressure area in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, the formation of Tropical Depression Five, and the aircraft for the Florida low. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly-formed Tropical Depression Five, located about 800 miles east-southeast of Barbados. A broad area of low pressure located inland over South Florida is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extends eastward over the northwestern Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Significant development of the low is unlikely today while it drifts northward over the southern or central Florida peninsula. However, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development once the low moves off the east-central coast of Florida over the western Atlantic by Sunday, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon has been canceled. Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that a low pressure area has formed just off the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity shows signs of organization. However, the system is likely to move inland over eastern Texas and western Louisiana before significant development can occur. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring locally heavy rains to portions of Louisiana and eastern Texas during the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. $$ Forecaster Beven
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