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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-03 07:35:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 030535 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located just north of western Grand Bahama Island. Recent satellite-derived surface winds indicate that the low pressure area located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is becoming better defined. Associated thunderstorm activity has been increasing and showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure system located over the west-central Gulf of Mexico about 200 miles east-northeast of Tampico, Mexico, is showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next day or so while the low moves slowly westward or west-southwestward toward Mexico. Interests along the northeastern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A trough of low pressure, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of the disturbance is possible during the next couple of days. Afterward, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Stewart
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