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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-12 19:29:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 121729 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Satellite derived winds and surface observations indicate that the disturbance in the Bahamas has not yet developed a closed circulation, and that the winds are not strong at this time. However, surface pressures remain low and environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form within the next day or two as the system moves toward the northwest at 5 to 10 mph through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida Peninsula. Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories could be needed later today or Friday, and interests in the central and northwestern Bahamas as well as Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, this disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas through Friday, including areas of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is still scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward over the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
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