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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-21 01:46:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 202346 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Jerry, located a little more than a hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands. A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are currently conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves quickly westward to west- northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, crossing the Windward Islands Saturday night and Sunday. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development early next week once the wave moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands over the weekend, and interests on those islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A broad area of low pressure located just south of Haiti continues to produce only disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Due to strong upper-level winds, significant development of this system is not expected while it moves slowly west-northwestward during the next couple of days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba through the weekend, potentially causing flash flooding and mudslides in areas of high terrain. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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